The U.S. government on Friday announced a list of 15 prescription drugs targeted for Medicare price negotiations for 2027, which includes Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster weight loss drug Wegovy.Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying at subject of inclusion:
What this means for patients The possibility of more aggressive price cuts would allow broader access to GLP-1 drugs – the same class of drugs as Ozempic and Wegovy – for people over 65. Drug plans administered by private insurers, known as “Part D,” currently cannot cover drugs that are approved only for obesity. Expanding coverage for obesity medications could allow more Americans to obtain new weight-loss drugs. However, the inclusion does not address issues of access or out-of-pocket costs for commercial and uninsured patients, BMO Capital Markets analysts said.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SALES
Given that diabetes medications, including Ozempic, are already heavily discounted and negotiated discounts are based on gross price rather than discounted price, the impact of a negotiated price is expected to be small .
Analysts at TD Cowen estimate that about 45% of U.S. sales of Ozempic and Rybelsus are through Medicare Part D.
This group represents about 3.6 million obese or overweight patients with heart problems and insured under the U.S. Medicare program, according to a study released last year by the Kaiser Family Foundation. According to analysts at TD Cowen, however, this is a relatively small share of the obese population in the United States.
-WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRICES
Ozempic has a list price of around $935 per month, while Wegovy has a list price of around $1,350 per month regardless of dosage, excluding coupons and discounts.
Negotiated price reductions are based on the gross price and do not take into account discounts or rebates provided by drug manufacturers.
Novo said it keeps about 60% of Ozempic’s list price.
TD Cowen expects the negotiations to result in a reduction of around 30% from the current average net price in 2027, adding that there was a wide range of possibilities on how the negotiations would proceed with the new Trump administration.
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