DECRYPTION. Electricity prices: reduction in the regulated rate, changes in off-peak hours… everything that changes on your bill in 2025

This year, we can at least be sure of one thing, and it is good news: the price of electricity will fall for a majority of French people. More than 22 million households, 59% exactly, are affected. Those who have opted for the Regulated Sales Tariff (TRV) or whose contract is linked to it.

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The reduction in what is also called the Blue Tariff was set at 15% this Thursday, January 16 for entry into force on February 1. This is the consequence of “the significant reduction in market prices”, indicates Emmanuelle Wargon, the president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) who specifies that the TRV will not experience “no further development excluding taxes in 2025“.

Two taxes that increase

But the energy itself only represents about a third of the electricity bill. Other lines will increase. Because February 1st is also the date on which will be lifted the tariff shield implemented during winter 2021 to protect purchasing power. On this date, the excise on electricity, formerly called TICFE (domestic tax on final consumption of electricity), will return to its level before the energy crisis, as confirmed by a decree published in Official Journal on December 28, 2024.

It will cost 33.70 euros per MWh for individuals (compared to 21 euros currently) and 26.23 euros per MWh for small and medium-sized businesses (compared to 20.50 euros currently). An additional increase in this tax had been considered by the government of Michel Barnier as part of the finance bill for 2025. Contested in Parliament, this measure was finally abandoned by the Prime Minister last November. It is not impossible that it will resurface in the coming months.

A second tax will also increase : the tariff for using public electricity networks (Turpe), which finances its transmission and distribution. The increase should be around 10% for the period 2025-2028 for regulated rate subscribers, again from February 1. It has already entered into force, on November 1, 2024, for those benefiting from a market offer.

Setting the price of electricity being a gas plant, let us remember that in the end, this year we will have an increase of 12 euros per MWh of excise and 5 euros per MWh of Turpe, for a drop of approximately 40 euros per MWh of the TRV.

Shifted off-peak hours

Mis in place almost half a century ago, the peak/off-peak hours system (HP/HC) was chosen by 40% of users. It allows you to pay less for your energy during hours when electricity system costs are lower, generally at night. But “with the evolution of the electricity mix for several years, photovoltaic energy in particular is abundant in the summer season (from April to October) in the afternoon and therefore less expensive”, indicates to La Dépêche du Midi Enedis, the manager of the public electricity distribution network.

This would therefore lead the latter to “move part of the off-peak hours (two to three hours) to the beginning of the afternoon. A minimum of five off-peak hours will remain at night”. A development which, however, remains pending validation by the CRE. “We will make our decision on this subject at the beginning of February for implementation from this summer, if necessary,” says Emmanuelle Wargon.

It is also pleased to our electrical recovery last year: “With the return to normal of the production of nuclear power plants, the continued development of renewable energies and the abundance of hydraulic production, French electricity production has more than covered national needs”. Indeed, France has never exported as much electricity as in 2024.