Moldovan citizens will vote in the parliamentary elections this year. There is a risk that their vote will derail Chisinau’s European journey. Only time will tell what Europe’s reaction will be, writes Vitalie Cojocari.
What is Transnistria, the pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova, based on? Not the Russian army, as some might think.
Russia has at most 2,000 troops on the east bank of the Dniester River in Moldova. These forces have been around for a long time – at least three decades.
Furthermore, the local army has nearly 6,000 soldiers, made up of young people born in the region, according to estimates by the Moldovan government.
Therefore, the forces supporting Transnistrian separatism are a pale shadow of what the 14th Army once was. The military force that held the Republic of Moldova in check during the years of war on the Dniester left behind many obsolete weaponry and declining morale.
So what keeps the Transnistrian region alive? It is based on three main pillars.
Russian propaganda, money… and gas.
The third and most important pillar collapsed this month. The end of a five-year pre-invasion deal between Ukraine and Russia has blocked Kremlin gas from entering Europe via Ukrainian territory, while Moscow refuses to send gas to the breakaway region .
This situation leads analysts in Chisinau to ask: “When will the other two pillars fall?” “. Not “if”, but “when”?
And when could the Tiraspol regime collapse? Months, weeks? Nobody knows.
The Kremlin’s propaganda does not warm people up, and transfers in rubles only add money to the accounts of pensioners and civil servants. What will others do without work, without heating, without light? Especially if they have children who are suffering.
If the situation continues, discontent could grow among the population and even among civil servants, calling into question the authoritarian regime in Tiraspol.
Deteriorating living conditions could easily push people to migrate. Although not a war zone, the breakaway region faces a major humanitarian crisis.
With their so-called authorities completely stuck in the past and a demoralized military to boot, someone must step in to fill the power vacuum to provide solutions.
Dependence on Russian gas
What happens next will depend on how the gas situation is resolved. But why is Russian gas so essential in the region?
To put it simply, the entire local economy depends on it. Shops, factories, businesses, electricity, heating of homes… Almost everything runs on Russian gas for which Transnistria has not paid a cent for 20 years.
The region owes Gazprom 11 billion dollars (10.7 billion euros). But Moscow never demanded this money.
Instead, he wants Chisinau’s alleged unpaid debt: $700 million (€681 million).
Why “presumed”? Because an international financial audit showed that it was a fabrication.
However, Moscow does not believe in international audits and refuses to listen to Chisinau’s objections. It refuses to send gas to Transnistria unless Moldova pays its so-called debt.
Technically, the gas could reach Tiraspol via the trans-Balkan gas pipeline.
Even Vitalii Ignatiev, the so-called foreign minister in Tiraspol, said this on Russian state TV channel Rossiya-1. He was asked why the Balkan route was not used.
“Last year we had gas, technically it’s possible,” he said. “But there are some legal and administrative problems. These issues must be resolved with the participation of Moldova. Moldova, as we know from Gazprom, has some debt. »
Oddly enough, even Ignatiev doesn’t seem interested in a path that works and has already been tested. He only wants gas that passes through Ukraine.
“Chisinau refused to jointly ask kyiv to continue gas deliveries via Ukraine,” he said.
Even if Russia can send gas to the breakaway region, as it has done before, it does not want to.
Instead, Russian state television extensively reports “how the Transnistrians are freezing.”
The cold temperatures hitting the residents of Tiraspol are presented along with information that the EU has less and less gas because of Ukraine.
Eyes on the EU
Russians have always said that “Transnistrians are like parents to them”. So why do they keep them in the dark and cold?
But above all, will Westerners be frightened by the suffering of the “Transnistrians”? Will European leaders pressure Kyiv to open the pipeline? That remains to be seen.
It also remains to be seen to what extent the EU is willing to help Moldova.
Undeniably, electricity bills have increased since Ukraine terminated its contract with Gazprom on January 1.
It is undeniable that Russian propaganda is very strong in Moldova. It tells Moldovans every day who is responsible for the fact that they pay too much for gas and electricity. He tells them about Chisinau, kyiv, Washington. Only Moscow is presented as innocent.
Moldovan citizens will vote in the parliamentary elections this year. There is a risk that their vote will derail Chisinau’s European journey.
Only time will tell what Europe’s reaction will be.
We will also see how long the Russians are prepared to keep Transnistria in darkness and cold.
We will also see how long the Tiraspol regime will last.
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