Olaf Scholz loses the confidence of MPs
On December 16, 2024, the German Chancellor submitted the vote of confidence to the Bundestag, the lower house of Parliament, allowing the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag as soon as the deputies withdraw their confidence in the latter. With only 207 votes out of 717, Olaf Scholz lost this vote, far from the 367 needed to reach the majority. This result marks the failure of the coalition he has led since 2021, made up of his Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP). Consequently, legislative elections will take place on February 23, seven months before the date initially planned.
Since November 6, the chancellor has led a minority government between the Greens and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) following the dismissal of the liberal Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, leading to the departure of liberal ministers from the government. This break itself comes after months of tensions and disagreements concerning the economic policy to be followed by Germany. While the Social Democrats favor social policies, the Greens aim for ambitious climate measures and the Liberals defend strict budgetary discipline.
Olaf Scholz shows confidence against favorite Friedrich Merz
Despite his unpopularity, Olaf Scholz, supported by his party to run for a new mandate, remains optimistic about his chances of victory. However, the polls do not work in its favor, with only 15% of voting intentions, or more than 16 points difference with the Christian Democratic Party in the lead (CDU-CSU). However, all is not lost for him. During the last legislative elections, he went from 14% to 25.7% of voting intentions in the space of three months – allowing him to win the chancellorship. During the Social Democratic Party congress in Berlin on January 11, he expressed his optimism about victory in these elections.
On the other side of the political spectrum, the candidate of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU), Friedrich Merz, is the favorite to become the next chancellor. Indeed, he is leading the polls and well ahead of his rival, with 31% of voting intentions. It presents itself as the best option for Germany to overcome its economic difficulties, with proposals aimed at reforming the welfare system, attracting foreign investment and facilitating capital flows to German companies.
The rise of the far right
As in other European countries, Germany is facing the rise of the far right. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) obtained 20% of voting intentions in the polls, marking an increase of one point compared to the mid-December poll. This is the highest value of the political barometer in a year. The party had already recorded historic scores during regional elections, particularly important in Germany, coming in first in Thuringia and exceeding 30% in Saxony. In addition, the candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, is supported by Elon Musk, who called for voting for the AfD during an exchange with her on the social network X on January 9. However, the party remains isolated in the German political landscape. Until now, no other party has wanted to ally with this far-right movement.
Several coalition possibilities
Since it is rare for a party to obtain an absolute majority on its own during legislative elections, a coalition between two or three groups of deputies must be formed after the elections, in order to bring together a majority making it possible to elect a government and a chancellor. A coalition could be formed between the Christian Democratic Party (CDU-CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), as was the case under Angela Merkel’s government, between 2005 and 2009, as well as between 2013 and 2021. The Christian Democrats could also ally themselves with the Greens, who currently have 14% of voting intentions.
Regardless of the outcome, these elections highlight major concerns such as budgetary and social issues, the management of immigration and Germany’s positioning in the face of the war in Ukraine. The central challenge of these elections will be to form a stable and lasting coalition, in the face of the significant score expected for the far-right party. Moreover, the experience of the tripartite coalition revealed the difficulties associated with three-party governance, while previous coalitions between Christian Democrats and Social Democrats left a mixed record. The current government will continue to sit until a new coalition is formed.
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