Good news for subscribers to the “blue tariff”, the drop in electricity prices will ultimately be a little greater than expected. The 20 million households who have chosen the regulated EDF tariff (around 60% of the 34 million French households) and the 4 million who have a contract indexed to this tariff with another supplier (10% of households), will see their bill will decrease by 15% on February 1, the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) announced this Thursday, January 16. A first since 2015, prices having even increased by 45% since 2022 and the start of the war in Ukraine which led to a sharp increase in gas and electricity prices on the European market. This 15% reduction will occur despite the increase in a government tax and the increase in the costs of transporting and distributing electricity (Turpe), as the Barnier and Bayrou governments had successively promised (even if Bercy, in quest for savings and revenue, was initially tempted not to pass it on in full to recover 3 billion euros).
Regulated electricity sale prices “fall because the energy share [de la facture] decline very sharply”specified the president of the Commission, Emmanuelle Wargon. The CRE has therefore formalized the exact level of this reduction previously expected at -14%, after two years of strong increases against a backdrop of the energy crisis. This regulatory decision finally marks the reversal of wholesale prices that has been taking place for two years on the electricity market: the “spot” price of MWh, which had soared to more than 700 euros in the summer of 2022, had fallen again. at less than 140 euros this Thursday, January 16, 2025. The decline in electricity prices will allow “a very substantial drop” of “the energy part” of the bill, emphasized Emmanuelle Wargon.
Concretely, the CRE has calculated the savings to be expected for households with regulated tariffs conventionally using electricity for cooking, hot water and heating. They are significant: the reduction would amount to 651 euros per year for a family of four people in a house; 389 euros for a household of three people in an apartment and 107 euros for a household of two people. On the other hand, for the 10 million individuals who have chosen a market offer proposed by a competitor of EDF, do not depend on regulated tariffs and are subscribed to market offers, the variation will depend on their suppliers, free to pass on or not these increases, by playing on their margins. TotalEnergies, Engie or ENI (non-exhaustive list) should soon position themselves on their new prices.*
Beware of rising prices in 2026
As consumer associations hoped, this 15% reduction in regulated prices will more than compensate for the two tax increases applied on February 1, marking the end of the “tariff shield” put in place during the energy crisis… even if it could have been more significant if the latter had been partly maintained to take into account the difficulties of the millions of households made precarious by energy inflation who are still having difficulty heating themselves this winter. The tax on electricity, lowered to its minimum (1 euro per megawatt hour) during the crisis, will rise to its initial level, increased for inflation, i.e. 33.70 euros per megawatt hour for individuals compared to 22 euros currently. And the transport and distribution tariff, a toll paid by suppliers and passed on to consumers, will increase by 7.7%.
Ultimately, this energy boost to household purchasing power, while gas prices are slow to fall, could be short-lived. Specialists expect a further rise in electricity prices in 2026 with the end of Arenh (regulated access to historic nuclear energy) which today allows EDF’s competitors to supply themselves with electricity at a very competitive price: from 42 euros per MWh, the resale price should rise to 70 euros and could become the norm, automatically increasing the bill for the French, whether they have chosen a regulated offer from EDF, indexed or at a fixed price with one of its competitors.
