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Israel-Hamas war: a ceasefire agreement concluded

The deal, reached after weeks of painstaking negotiations in the Qatari capital, promises the phased release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel and would allow hundreds of thousands of people to be displaced in the Gaza Strip to return to what remains of their homes. It would also make it possible to flood a devastated territory with desperately needed humanitarian aid.

Three U.S. officials and a Hamas representative confirmed a deal had been reached, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said final details were still being worked out.

The three American officials and the Hamas official requested anonymity to discuss the contours of the agreement before the official announcement by the mediators in Doha.

President Joe Biden was set to speak about the breakaway deal later Thursday, officials said.

Mr. Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that it hoped “details would be finalized this evening.” Any deal must be approved by Mr Netanyahu’s cabinet.

Once official, the agreement is expected to allow for an initial cessation of fighting for six weeks, which should be accompanied by the opening of negotiations to end the war.

SEE ALSO | Reconstruction could take decades in Gaza

Still many unknowns

During these six weeks, 33 of the approximately 100 hostages are expected to be reunited with their loved ones after months of captivity without contact with the outside world, but it is not certain that they are all alive.

It remains unclear when and how many displaced Palestinians will be able to return to what remains of their homes, or whether the deal will lead to a complete end to the war and a total withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza – key Hamas demands for the release of the remaining captives.

Many long-term questions about post-war Gaza remain, including who will rule the territory or oversee the colossal task of reconstruction.

Nonetheless, the announcement represents the first sign of hope in months that Israel and Hamas are ending the deadliest and most destructive war they have ever fought, a conflict that has destabilized throughout the Middle East and sparked protests around the world.

Hamas started the war with its cross-border attack on October 7, 2023, which killed some 1,200 Israelis and took 250 others hostage. Israel responded with a ferocious offensive that killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, displaced around 90% of Gaza’s population and sparked a humanitarian crisis.

More than 100 hostages were released from Gaza during a week-long truce in November 2023.

SEE ALSO | Tensions in the Middle East: “Why is Iran acting like this?”

The United States, Egypt and Qatar negotiated months of indirect talks between the bitter enemies, which ultimately resulted in this latest deal. The agreement comes after Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in November, following more than a year of conflict linked to the war in the Gaza Strip.

Israel responded with a brutal air and ground offensive that killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities. They do not distinguish between civilians and militants, but say women and children account for more than half of the victims.

The United Nations and international humanitarian organizations estimate that around 90 percent of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced, often multiple times. They say tens of thousands of homes have been destroyed and hospitals are barely functioning. Experts have warned that famine could be underway in the northern Gaza Strip, where Israel launched a major offensive in early October, displacing tens of thousands of residents.

Many reactions

“This is the best day of my life and the lives of the people of Gaza,” said Abed Radwan, a Palestinian father of three, about the ceasefire agreement. “I thank God. Thank God. »

Radwan, who has been displaced from the town of Beit Lahiya for over a year and taken refuge in Gaza City, said he would try to return to his hometown and “rebuild my house and rebuild Beit Lahiya.

He spoke to AP by telephone. His voice was eclipsed by the celebrations.

“People are crying here. They don’t believe it’s true.”

-Abed Radwan to Gaza

In Israel, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Israeli army headquarters in Tel Aviv, calling for a deal. Many held up posters of hostages held by Hamas, others hoisted candles in the air.

When the deal was announced, some people were unaware it had been reached. Sharone Lifschitz, whose father Oded is detained in Gaza, told the AP by telephone that she was stunned and grateful, but would not believe it until she saw all the hostages return. at their home.

“I am so desperate to see them if by some miracle my father survived,” she said.

US President Joe Biden, who has provided crucial military aid to Israel but has expressed exasperation over civilian deaths, announced the outline of the three-phase ceasefire deal on May 31. The agreement ultimately reached followed this framework.

He said the first phase would last six weeks and include a “full ceasefire”, a withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women. , the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian aid would flow in, with hundreds of trucks entering the Gaza Strip every day.

The second, most difficult phase would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza. The third phase sees the start of a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding after the devastation caused by the war.

Hamas demanded guarantees regarding a permanent end to the war and the complete withdrawal of all Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. Israel, for its part, has repeatedly stated that it will not end the war until it destroys Hamas’s military and administrative capabilities.

The various actors conducted intermittent negotiations for months. However, with Mr Biden’s days numbered and President-elect Donald Trump expected to take over, both sides have been under intense pressure to reach an agreement.

Mr Trump celebrated the soon-to-be-announced deal in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. “WE HAVE AN AGREEMENT FOR HOSTAGES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THEY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY. THANK YOU !” he wrote.

Hezbollah’s acceptance of a ceasefire in Lebanon, after suffering heavy losses, and the overthrow of President Bashar Assad in Syria were two major setbacks for Iran and its allies in the region, including including Hamas, which found itself increasingly isolated.

SEE ALSO | Israel-Iran: the timeline of tensions

Israel has faced intense international criticism, including from its closest ally, the United States, over the number of civilians killed. Israel claims to have killed approximately 17,000 militants, although it does not provide evidence to support this claim. It also blames Hamas for civilian casualties, accusing it of using schools, hospitals and residential areas for military purposes.

The International Court of Justice is investigating South Africa’s allegations that Israel committed genocide. The International Criminal Court, a separate body also based in The Hague, has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his defense minister and a Hamas commander for war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to war.

Israel and the United States condemned the actions taken by both courts.

Mr. Netanyahu also faced intense domestic pressure to return the hostages, whose plight captured the nation’s attention. Their families have become a powerful lobby group with widespread public support, bolstered by months of mass protests urging the government to strike a deal with Hamas.

Israeli authorities have already concluded that more than a third of the approximately 100 people still held captive are dead, and more are feared to be alive. A series of videos released by Hamas showing surviving hostages in distress, as well as news of the deaths of a growing number of kidnapped Israelis, have increased pressure on the Israeli leader.

Hamas, a militant group that does not accept the existence of Israel, has come under overwhelming pressure from Israeli military operations, including the invasion of Gaza’s largest cities and the takeover of the border between Gaza and Egypt. Its main leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, who allegedly participated in the organization of the attack of October 7, 2023, were killed.

But its fighters regrouped in some of the worst-hit areas after Israeli forces withdrew, raising the possibility of a prolonged insurgency if the war continues.

Mr. Netanyahu has pledged to continue the war until Hamas’s military and administrative capabilities are destroyed. But it was never clear what this would entail, or even if it was possible, given the group’s deep roots in Palestinian society, its presence in Lebanon and the occupied West Bank, and the exile of its leaders.

And after?

If the ceasefire is confirmed, both sides will face many difficult and unanswered questions.

As the war ends, Mr. Netanyahu will face growing calls for postwar investigations that could hold him at least partially responsible for the October 7 security failures, the worst in history. the history of Israel. His far-right government partners, who have opposed a ceasefire deal, could also bring down the coalition and push the country toward early elections.

No plans have yet been made to determine who will govern the Gaza Strip after the war. Israel said it would work with local Palestinians not affiliated with Hamas or the Western-backed Palestinian Authority. But it is unclear whether such partners exist, and Hamas has threatened anyone who cooperates with Israeli forces.

The United States has attempted to advance major post-war plans, namely a reformed Palestinian Authority that would govern the Gaza Strip with the help of Arab countries and the international community. As part of these plans, the United States hopes that Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel in exchange for American security guarantees and assistance in establishing a civilian nuclear program.

But those plans depend on credible progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state, something Netanyahu and much of Israel’s political class oppose. Mr. Netanyahu said Israel would maintain unlimited security control over Gaza as well as the occupied West Bank, territories captured by Israel in the 1967 war and which the Palestinians want for their future state.

Absent a post-war agreement with Palestinian support, Hamas will likely remain a significant force in Gaza and could rebuild its military capabilities if Israeli forces withdrew completely.

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