INSEE recorded a 2.2% drop in births in France last year compared to 2023. A profound change in mentalities and society is leading to a fall in the average number of children per woman.
The formula caused a lot of reaction. Last January, Emmanuel Macron called for a “demographic rearmament”, in order to revive a flagging birth rate. A year later, the situation has not changed.
INSEE revealed this Tuesday, January 14 that fertility continued to decline in 2024: 663,000 births last year, that is 2.2% less than in 2023 and 21.5% less than in 2010, year of the last peak in births.
Last year, the average number of children per woman was 1.62. The lowest level since the end of the First World War. For now, therefore, this “demographic rearmament” desired by Emmanuel Macron does not seem to have taken hold.
End of the French demographic exception
As Hervé Le Bras, director of studies at the School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS), reminds BFMTV.com, between 2000 and 2012, the total fertility indicator was around 2 children per woman then increased. started to decline. “There was a sudden fall in 2023 and it continues,” explains the specialist.
We observe an alignment of European countries around around 1.5 children per woman on average. “Countries which still had a fairly high level such as France, Ireland or the Nordic countries are declining and those which were already low are stagnating or even increasing again, a bit like Portugal or Germany”, illustrates Hervé Le Bras.
For a long time, France remained a demographic exception which, according to Hervé Le Bras, can be explained by “the stigma of the only child” which remained tenacious in the country. “Since the 1930s, people have said that it was not good and that the child would be bored,” he explains, affirming that this idea is changing, which inevitably has consequences.
A consequence of gender inequality
On RMC, Didier Breton, professor of demography at the University of Strasbourg, notes a “decrease in social pressure to have a child, which allows individuals not to have one and a slightly larger share of couples who have two children left, or even one.
In addition, the fertility indicator is closely linked to relationships and equality between women and men. Thus, there has long been a desire in France to “reconcile family life and professional life”, that is to say, not to pit family against employment. “It was successful because the women were less qualified, they ultimately worked double days (their working day then taking care of the children and the home, Editor’s note) and their career was ‘less important’,” explains Hervé Le Bras.
Today the situation is different. In fact, women are now more qualified than men “and there is no longer any reason for them to sacrifice their careers”, reports the demographer. Above all, as various INSEE surveys show, the sharing of domestic tasks remains very unequal, with no notable progress.
Source of concern for the future
So, is a drop in the birth rate serious, doctor? For Hervé Le Bras, in the short and medium term, around 20 years, “not at all”. “This will result in fewer costs for education and couples will have more income,” he argues.
The problem arises more at the age of entry into the labor market for these generations, where there may be consequences on pension and health costs. “Concerning the pension system, there is on average a reform every four years, there is time to see,” nevertheless comments Hervé Le Bras.
However, demographics remain a cause for concern for many people, who see the decline in fertility as a bad signal for the future. And this is not new. “From the beginning of the 19th century, the decline in fertility in France caused the feeling of being overtaken by others: there is always the feeling that one needs to have many children to be powerful”, says Hervé Le Bras.
However, this vision is not the same everywhere since certain countries, for centuries, have been concerned about demographic growth, such as in the United Kingdom, the birthplace of Malthusianism, or in Germany, where there was even an imposed time a marriage tax to limit births (which ultimately only led to an increase in births outside of marriage).
Demographers observe, moreover, that there is no evidence of a relationship between economic growth and demographic growth: Germany has been more successful economically than France by having lower fertility and China is the second world power with an average of 1.1 children per woman.
What solutions?
So what should we do if we wish, like Emmanuel Macron, to revive births in France? Hervé Le Bras concedes: it is very difficult to stimulate the birth rate. He cites, for example, the case of the increase in family allowances which “does not show serious results”.
According to the specialist, what could have a “small effect” is for “companies and administrations to be more flexible on schedules”, for example in the event of a sick child or a problem at school.
On RMC, Julien Damon, professor at Sciences Po and specialist in family policies, believes that what will motivate or not couples to have a child depends in particular on the quality of the public early childhood service, such as “allowing future parents to have a place in a crèche or to use a childminder.
Since his press conference in January 2024 and the announcement of his desire to “demographically rearm” the country, no strong announcement has been made. “Emmanuel Macron speaks but there is nothing that follows,” laments Hervé Le Bras.
The population continues to increase
Despite this drop in fertility observed again in 2024, the French population continues to increase. The natural balance stands at +17,000 last year (difference between the number of births and the number of deaths) when the migratory balance is +152,000 people (difference between the number of people who entered the territory and the number of people who left).
“This migration, which is mostly very young, is added to births,” summarizes Hervé Le Bras.
The demographer cites, for example, the case of Germany, which, like France, has 23% of inhabitants aged over 65, despite lower fertility.
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