After the approval of 15th package of sanctions against Russiaand while already working on the 16th, the European Union has very loudly renewed its commitment to Ukraine’s membership. Even opening up on the so-called “fundamental cluster” at the beginning of 2025 and on other clusters during the same year.
Nothing transcendental, but one strong acceleration in the process of Ukrainian entry into the EU. At least in words, given that in reality any anchoring of the country to the European community – an economic and not a geopolitical entity – would be a much more digestible morsel for Russia rather than membership in NATO. And it is precisely on this delicate balance that a sort of thing is played out unwritten “covenant”. put on the table by the United States.
Clusters and requirements, how the EU accession process works
First of all it is good to clarify some terms. We talked about cluster e fundamentals in relation to the accession of a State to the European Union. What is it about? When a country wants to join the EUmust pass through an analytical examination of thecommunity acquisdefined screening. In practice, this is the preparatory phase for the accession negotiations. By acquis communautaire we mean the set of rights, legal obligations and political objectives that unite and bind the Member States of the European Union.
The screening process is divided into 35 chaptersgrouped in turn into six clusters. This package serves as the basis for the bilateral negotiations between the Union and the candidate States. In this sense, screening is configured as a formal and technical step conducted by the EU Commission to prepare the accession negotiations. This step allows candidate countries to familiarize themselves with the acquis and the obligations it entails, precisely because the candidate state itself must be able to implement the acquis. A screening ulterioreand consequently further clusters, take place during the negotiations. Also to update the rules in the event of an update to community law.
Billions of euros and membership, von der Leyen’s promise to Kiev
Now we are able to better understand the statements made by Ursula von der Leyen at the plenary of the European Parliament, in a session largely dedicated to Brussels’ posture towards the ongoing wars and the countries involved in them. Starting right from Ukraine, great protégé of the USA and the EU in its resistance conflict against Russia. In a historical moment in which the United States, tired and in need of reducing the overexposure on multiple frontsawait the new course promised by the president-elect Donald Trumpthe European Union appears increasingly divided even politically. The renewal of the von der Leyen executive is passed with minimum marks and its mediating mission is already compromised. Nonetheless, Washington is counting on the ability of EU states to take on support for Kieveven in the post-war future and without divisions and internal rivalries and of crisis of the German engine.
The number one of the EU Commission therefore had to make a change of pace, at least rhetorically. If the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyin fact at the head of a failed state that is in vital need of foreign financing, will confirm the “enormous progress towards joining our Union”, it will be possible to officially open the negotiations already in the first months of 2025. In this regard, Brussels will pay to Kiev 13 billion euros next year and, starting in January, it will begin transfer the community part of the G7 loanfinanced with proceeds from assets and fixed assets. In everything we talk about over 18 billion euros for 2025. In the EU executive’s calculations, this boost should guarantee Ukraine economic and financial stability until the end of next year and will free up fiscal space for the purchase of military equipment. In other words, “the strategy of Vladimir Putin to push Kiev into financial disaster has completely failed,” von der Leyen ruled. Pure rhetoric, but that is also needed.
The European plan also involves the most immediate challenge for a willing Ukraine get back on their feet socially and economicallyin order to be able to join the EU: the reconstruction of the energy system, heavily damaged by Russian bombing. So far the EU has supplied Kiev with thousands of power generators, transformers, electrical components and millions of LED light bulbs. “But we must do more,” stated von der Leyen, who will ask the European Council to further strengthen the connection network and facilitate decentralized electricity generation. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has estimated the financing gap of Ukraine a over $42 billion by 2025. Filling this gap will be the real challenge for the EU, provided that the Trump presidency and internal frictions between states do not jam the mechanism.
The “strange game” between Ukraine, the EU, the USA, NATO and Russia
The EU is one construction of American hegemony on the European continent. In practice, the political arm of the USA in Europe, while NATO represents its armed wing. At the time of the reunification of Germaniait was decided to make it the center of the new European economic community, while keeping it internally divided and stripping it of any strategic autonomy or geopolitical subjectivity in international treaties. In other words: nothing moves that the United States doesn’t want. And now the United States wants to sit at the table with the Russians, with the Ukrainians standing in the second row. Trump’s official inauguration in the White House is less than a month away. At this juncture Moscow attempts to conquer Pokrovsk and thus cement its position of territorial advantage, while Kiev uses the long range weapons supplied by Europeans with American approval.
At the same time, the US-led West does so that the Russians don’t get too annoyed before the start of negotiations, which should take place in early 2025. The Kremlin has placed one condition above all others: the neutrality of Ukrainei.e. the guarantee that the country will not join NATO. Obviously this is something that cannot be accepted publicly, even if Trump has agreed in principle. In the wake of the apparatus, that is to say the real US decision makers (other than the president). So how can we keep Ukraine tied to ourselves and at the same time reach an agreement with the Russians? Easy, just letting it let the European Union pull Kiev into the Westbut according to an economic and not military partnership. In this way the Kremlin could accept the conditions of a ceasefire without the guns singing again anytime soon. With Ukraine having to be content with taking a European and not an Atlantic path.
But will Ukraine join the EU or not?
Despite the proclamations from Brussels, it could take years, if not decadesfor Ukraine’s successful entry into the EU. At the moment the invaded country has started negotiations on 35 subjects to harmonize the national system with community standards and has yet to finish participating in bilateral negotiations with each individual member state. The Ukrainian government had completed the necessary documents long ago for the application, by handing in the second completed questionnaire on May 9, 2022. To succeed, Kiev needs the support of all 27 EU states. However, if on the one hand some of these openly support the perspective, such as Italyothers still hesitate. According to current rules, to join the Union a State must:
- be a European state (Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, also known as the Maastricht Treaty);
- respect the principles of freedom, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, as well as the rule of law (Article 6);
- meet a set of economic and political conditions known as the Copenhagen criteria (including the existence of a functioning market economy and the ability to cope with market forces and competitive pressure within the EU).
And here the first big problems arise: Ukraine is a technically failed countrywhich vitally needs external funding to survive. The aid that the West sends to Kiev is not in fact exclusively military in nature, but also financial support the entire state machine. Even the rule of law approach does not appear crystal clear, to put it mildly, despite the positive opinion of the EU Commission, as demonstrated by the debate onextension of Zelensky’s presidential powers (long expired) due to a not very clear interpretation of martial law. At the end of the day, however, Brussels seems to have decided to flaunt Ukraine’s membership. The reason is without a doubt propagandain response to one Russia perceived as increasingly threatening on the eastern border of the EU, and in conjunction with a greater political and military weight assumed by Poland and Baltic States within NATO.
The Commission, for its part, is the last to set the parameters for each chapter and the dates for achieving the objectives in each of the 35 areas. And he has already made it clear that he wants to give Kiev the green light by doing so very large compromises. However, in this way there is a risk of triggering the harsh reaction of other countries awaiting of a response on membership. To cite a case in point, at Croatia it took an entire decade to complete everything, even though it had long emerged from the chaos of the Balkan wars of the 1990s. Which is why Brussels has announced the start of a similar process for theAlbaniaa fundamental step to counter Turkish and Russian influences in the Balkans and to stem the migratory emergency. But that’s another story.
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