Will the French escape the tax increase in 2025?

Will the French tax bill increase on January 1? This question has revived debates in the National Assembly around the special law currently being examined by parliamentarians.

Contacted by The Tribunethe entourage of the resigning Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin affirms that taxpayers will not pay more tax in January. And this, despite the rejection by the President of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet of the amendments aimed at indexing the income tax scale in the special law (see box).

A diagnosis confirmed by Simon-Pierre Sengayrac, professor of public finance at Sciences-Po Paris. Waving like a red rag by Prime Minister Michel Barnier before the vote on the motion of censure, the increase in income tax will therefore not take place at the start of the year. What certain deputies from the Macronist clan had also recognized after the fall of Michel Barnier’s government.

A risk of catching up in the fall due to lack of a 2025 budget

There is still a risk. “Sans budget, ils [les contribuables] would be caught up in the fall of 2025 over the full year and therefore from January », Warns Bercy. Given the timetable (declaration in April, editions of notices in August), catch-up could therefore take place in September over the first nine months. This means that the Bayrou government will have an interest in presenting a budget quickly if it does not want to pass on this tax bill to the French.

« Without measure in a finance bill, it is the special law and therefore the increase in taxes for those already there and the entry of tax for those not there. », adds Bercy.

Currently being composed, the Bayrou government will quickly have to tackle the preparation of the 2025 budget. HAS At this stage, two main scenarios are emerging. The first consists of resuming the finance bill (PLF) prepared by Michel Barnier, but the risk of rejection in the National Assembly is very high. The second is to construct a new initial finance law and present it within a very limited time frame to have it adopted as quickly as possible. A challenge given the breakup of the National Assembly.

The budget, first test of credibility for François Bayrou

Possible retroactive measures

Furthermore, mechanisms can make it possible to correct the deindexation of the scale. “ Two laws could index the income tax brackets to inflation, with a retroactive effect from January 1 if one of them was adopted during the year 2025. That is, an initial finance law for 2025 […] sthere is a law with fiscal measures », explains Thibaud Mulier, lecturer in public law at the University of Nanterre. “In view of the consensus, we can very quickly imagine a law adopted in this sense, the adoption of an initial finance law being much more politically complex”, indicates the academic.

This is also the request expressed by the budget rapporteur, Charles de Courson (LIOT), and the president of the Finance Commission at the National Assembly, Eric Coquerel (LFI), in a letter sent Sunday evening to the Prime Minister François Bayrou. The two deputies suggest that a new bill containing economic, financial and social measures be quickly tabled on the desk of the National Assembly to respond to the urgency of the situation. This text would quickly remove doubts about the indexation of the income tax scale, the extension of zero-rate loans and even restaurant vouchers.