Property prices expected to rise again: ING predicts a significant increase in 2025 and 2026

In thirty years, prices in Ixelles have multiplied by twelve, what about in other municipalities? (Infographic)

Competition on mortgage loans

Furthermore, market conditions are currently good. Wage indexation has made it possible to maintain purchasing power at a good level. And mortgage rates – from around 3% for a 20-year fixed loan, depending on the portion requested – are at a fairly favorable level. “Of course, we are not at the lowest level, as we experienced in 2014/2015, but they have still reached a certain floor today because the banks have quite strongly anticipated the current movement at the level of central banks and long rates” – namely key rates which should move, in Europe, towards 2% by the summer of 2025.

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Philipe Ledent underlines, moreover, that the context is rather favorable for negotiating good mortgage rates, after years when the credits requested and granted were at their lowest. “After the weak year 2024, competition will therefore take place between the banks which will undoubtedly take this parameter into account in their commercial policy. And we expect credit production to restart in 2025, following the expected increase in transactions.”specifies the economist.

Result of the races: ING predicts that after two years of “negative prices” (if we take into account inflation), prices will rise significantly in 2025: + 3% in absolute value (+ 0.9% in taking into account inflation). And ING is betting on an even stronger increase in 2026: +3.8% nominal increase, or +1.8% net increase (if we remove inflation).

Accessibility to property for young buyers

Philippe Ledent even believes that this recovery is necessary to guarantee accessibility to property in the long term. “Conversely, if the market does not restart, the flow of new construction, which has already been reduced, will continue to dry up and become insufficient to absorb the growth in the number of households. This could only push prices up in the longer term.” warns the ING economist who, however, does not believe in this pessimistic scenario.

Accessibility to housing is also a subject on which it is necessary to be nuanced, we recognize at ING. While it has improved with the fall in mortgage rates, it has become more difficult, particularly for young buyers, when it comes to energy-efficient housing. “And it will only get worse, with the tightening of legislation to come.” – moving towards an objective of energy neutrality of buildings, we consider at ING.