The listing of futures on the EEX (European Energy Exchange) market is crucial for players in the energy sector, because it gives an outlook on future energy prices, particularly gas, on the Gas Exchange Point (PEG). In France. These derivative products allow companies to plan their energy purchases, secure their supplies or even speculate on price variations.
The quotation of these futures is based on standardized contracts allowing energy prices to be locked in at specific future dates. This is particularly vital in a volatile market such as the energy market, where prices can fluctuate due to several factors, such as weather conditions, energy demand, and geopolitical conditions.
PEG Price for Futures Contracts
As of December 14, 2024, we are looking at the three main categories of contracts, M+1, Q+1 and Y+1, which are monthly, quarterly, and annual futures respectively.
Monthly Contracts (M+1)
- M+1 (February 2025)
- Prix: 41.3 €/MWh
- Evolution: -14% since December 2, 2024
- Price range: 41.3 – 48.253 €/MWh
The M+1 contract concerns the gas price for the following month, providing good visibility for rapid adjustments according to short-term energy needs.
Quarterly Contracts (Q+1)
- Q+1 (1st quarter 2025)
- Prix: 40.916 €/MWh
- Evolution: -15% since December 2, 2024
- Price range: 35.283 – 48.054 €/MWh
Quarterly contracts provide coverage over a longer three-month period, which can be particularly useful in smoothing out prices in the face of seasonal fluctuations.
Annual Contracts (Y+1)
- Y+1 (Year 2025)
- Prix: 39.849 €/MWh
- Evolution: -13% since December 2, 2024
- Price range: 26.616 – 45.65 €/MWh
Annual Y+1 futures are used to set energy prices over a full year, minimizing uncertainty in long-term budget planning.
Futures Price Trend on the PEG Market
As of December 14, 2024, trends show a notable decline in energy prices, which may be explained by changing macroeconomic conditions, including a potential increase in supply, a decrease in demand or various geopolitical factors.
Quotes Overview
- THE future monthly show a slight downward trend for the start of 2025 with variations between €40,484/MWh and €45,901/MWh.
- THE future quarterly illustrate a regression in the average price for the first quarter of 2025 to €38,308/MWh for the last quarter of the year.
- THE future annuals show a gradual decline in prices from 2025 to 2028, with a significant fall towards €24,948/MWh in 2028.
Conclusion
The choice between different contract types largely depends on the objectives and risk tolerance of energy buyers. Businesses looking for stability may opt for annual contracts, while those willing to capitalize on short-term opportunities might prefer monthly contracts. It is essential to continually monitor the evolution of quotes to make informed choices in a dynamic and complex sector.
| Contract Type | Nom | Prix (€/MWh) | Evolution (%) | Price range (€/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly (M+1) | February 2025 | 41.3 | -14% | 41.3 – 48.253 |
| Quarterly (Q+1) | 1st quarter 2025 | 40.916 | -15% | 35.283 – 48.054 |
| Annual (Y+1) | Year 2025 | 39.849 | -13% | 26.616 – 45.65 |
| Price Trends | ||||
| The monthly futures show a decrease, with a variation between €40,484/MWh and €45,901/MWh. | ||||
| The quarterly futures show an average price for the 1st quarter of 2025 at €38,308/MWh. | ||||
| Future annual rates gradually decline, reaching €24,948/MWh in 2028. | ||||
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