It’s time to submit some NFL picks for Week 15! More precisely, I will reveal three of my favorite bets for the coming weekend.
PICK 1: Lions at -2.5
Let’s start off strong by tackling the best game of the week: Buffalo at Detroit. What a match between these two powers!
My final decision on this potential Super Bowl matchup is this: I take the Lions at -2.5 points.
First, in terms of rest factor, we hold a big advantage with Detroit. That’s because they get three extra days off after playing last Thursday, while the Bills had to travel cross-country to play the Rams. That’s a big difference. In the same vein, it should be noted that the Lions will be at home for the fourth time in five weeks.
Last week’s loss to the Rams could have exposed the Bills defense. They allowed 44 points and 457 total yards. The Rams converted 11 of their 15 third downs. These are catastrophic numbers for Buffalo.
The Bills have played four straight road games against teams with a positive record. In those matchups, they went 1-3, giving up an average of 28 points.
For the entire season, Buffalo has allowed the seventh highest total rushing yards on average. This is bad news when we are about to face Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
However, I have some concerns. Detroit’s last two victories have been harder to come by. In both cases, they won by exactly three points.
Additionally, the Lions’ defense is pretty banged up, which is never good when you’re about to go up against Josh Allen and company.
Yet Detroit has by far the best point differential in the league. The Lions will be at home, while being well rested.
For these reasons, I have to side with the Lions with the 2.5 point spread against Buffalo.
PICK 2: the Buccaneers at +3
After losing four times in a row, Tampa is back on track with three wins in a row allowing it to regain first place in the weak South section of the National Association. They need this win more than Los Angeles, as the Chargers now have no chance of catching the Chiefs at the top of their division. However, they remain in a good position to occupy one of the “wildcard” places.
During their three-game winning streak, the ‘Bucs averaged 439 yards. Of course, these triumphs came against weaker opposition, but the club still got the job done.
Now, can Baker Mayfield continue to play at a high level against a fiercer defense? I think he can.
Los Angeles’ defense is crumbling a little. In the first nine games, she allowed an average of 302 total yards. This number increased to 372 in the next four games.
The Chargers have faced some good offenses lately: the Ravens and the Bengals. In these matches they gave 30 and 27 points. Tampa also has a good offense, so they could have success Sunday afternoon.
On the offensive side, the Chargers are missing the explosiveness of JK Dobbins. His replacement, Gus Edwards, is more of a power back, but is unlikely to make a long run.
Additionally, the status of their top wide receiver, rookie Ladd McConkey, remains unknown. Will he miss a second straight game? If he is in uniform, will he be in good shape?
So, ultimately, I chose the “Bucs” with the three extra points at SoFi Stadium.
PICK 3: Commanders at -7
Washington surprised the NFL world with an astonishing 7-2 start. Then, the Commanders experienced a three-game losing streak.
However, they came back strong with an impressive 42-19 win over the Titans last weekend. In this game, they took a 28-0 lead early in the second quarter, which was mind-blowing!
Washington appears to be back on track; the team has a good rhythm. Meanwhile, the Saints must be deflated after losing Derek Carr to a left hand injury that risks keeping him sidelined for the rest of the year.
Jake Haener will be behind center for the Saints. The former fourth-round pick out of Fresno State hasn’t had much success in the NFL thus far. Having limited usage time, he only completed 48% of his passes. With the team’s best receiver (Chris Olave) still out, I’d like to wish the young center good luck.
Even when Carr was the starting quarterback, the offense struggled. Indeed, she has totaled exactly 14 points in each of her last two games against some ordinary defenses.
Commanders players will be much more refreshed and ready. They just finished their week off and have actually spent the last three weeks at home.
Finally, the icing on the sundae is the fact that for many years, the favorites returning from their bye week have performed very well. I think the trend will continue. Washington will manhandle the Saints at Caesars Superdome.
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