New phenomenon of sudden death: fewer “Christmas trees” in southern Quebec within 20 years

A new phenomenon is affecting the balsam fir, also nicknamed the “king of forests”, which could be increasingly rare in southern Quebec within 20 years.

“As early as 2040, we could witness the decline of the balsam fir in southern Quebec, replaced by other species such as poplar, birch, sugar maple and oak,” explains to Journal Loïc D’Orangeville, professor in the Department of Wood and Forest Sciences at Laval University.

Although he hesitates to talk about the total disappearance of this tree in the southern mixed forests – from Bas-Saint-Laurent to Outaouais – he believes that several stands could be victims of a new phenomenon called the sudden death of the fir. balsam. The tree first sees its needles turn red and then fall, leaving only a skeleton of dry branches.

Massacre all the way to Maine

“In 2017 and 2018, countless fir trees in an area between New Brunswick and Wisconsin disappeared almost suddenly due, according to our hypothesis, to a series of climatic events which was fatal to them,” continues the biologist.

A warm spring, a dry summer and a late autumn with little rain led to these massive deaths, affecting up to a third of the trees in certain forests.

Quebec was little affected by this sudden massive mortality. But these hot and dry episodes are the expected scenarios in the coming decades, according to climatologists’ projections. “This is what awaits us in the coming years,” laments the expert.

Not the end everywhere

With his master’s student James Broom – now with the British Forest Service – and collaborators from New Brunswick, he carefully studied the climatological phenomena which accompanied these mortalities. Their results were published in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Chance in October 2024.

According to Professor D’Orangeville, large forests where balsam fir dominates, for example in the Laurentides Wildlife Reserve, would be less affected by this threat. “Where it could hurt is in mixed forests where fir is only one of the species present. By disappearing, she leaves room for others.”

Solutions to this decline exist. In addition to those consisting of fighting climate change, we should think now about replanting balsam fir, which we take a little too often for granted in the boreal forest. “It is a very resistant tree capable of adapting to difficult conditions, but periods of drought and heat reveal its vulnerability,” concludes the biologist.