US President-elect Donald Trump has called on emerging countries to commit to “not to create a new currency des BRICS“ or from “support another currency to replace the powerful American dollar“otherwise they will be exposed to 100% customs tariffs.
He was referring to a group of emerging economies (BRICS) which includes Russia, China and India.
Is the dollar losing its influence?
The “greenback”one of the nicknames of the United States currency, still accounts for 58% of global currency reserves, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), even if this proportion has contracted compared to 67% in 2000.
Still according to the IMF, export invoices denominated in dollars represent 74% of the total in the Asia/Pacific region, the most dynamic in terms of international trade.
The greenback retains a good part of the advantage created by the Bretton Woods agreements (1944), which laid the foundations of the modern international monetary system, with many countries choosing on this occasion to peg their currencies to the dollar.
The contours of this system have evolved and many have since renounced indexation to the greenback, without this calling into question its central place.
It also relies on the United States’ status as the world’s largest consumer of goods and services as well as the massive amount of US government debt held by foreign investors, amounting to just over $8 trillion.
The chronic deficits of the United States and this colossal debt have, for the moment, not undermined investors’ confidence in the dollar, any more than the financial crisis of 2008.
“The dollar has lost none of its dominant character as a financing currency, payment currency for international transactions and as a reserve currency”says Eswar Prasad, professor at Cornell University.
“Without the dollar as a reference currency, the multilateral trading system would cease to exist, which would make the global economy much less efficient”estimates Benn Steil, of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Is it really threatened?
Donald Trump’s exit comes a little more than a month after a summit in Kazan (Russia), during which the BRICS notably pleaded for the development of trade in local currencies by member countries.
“BRICS today could possibly be compared to what Europe was in the 70s in terms of integration, and again, that’s optimistic”puts Adam Button, of ForexLive, into perspective.
Transactions in local currencies have increased in recent years, mainly between Russia and China due to sanctions against the former, but there is no official plan for a common currency or even a unified currency zone.
“I’m not sure that any of these countries are ready to give up their monetary sovereignty”tempers Adam Button.
As for the currencies of the two most populous countries in the world, the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee, they remain very little used outside their borders.
In his communication, Donald Trump did not mention the euro, which does not have an expansionist aim and whose primary ambition remains to facilitate trade within Europe.
Why do you want to free yourself from it?
The influence of the dollar makes many countries around the world dependent on its variations. When it is strong, as it is now, it can fuel inflation, cause capital flight and force the central banks of affected nations to charge high rates, all of which can undermine an economy.
Furthermore, “the United States used the status of the dollar against its rivals through financial sanctions or the freezing of reserves”argues Eswar Prasad.
Can Trump’s threats work?
“Despite Trump’s bluster, you can’t force people to use the dollar”warns Jonathan Kirshner, professor of political science at Boston College University. “An international currency expands because people want to hold it. Coercion doesn’t work.”
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