War in Ukraine: “A sabotage campaign of astonishing recklessness…” How the Russians are increasing their malicious acts

An assassination attempt on the CEO of a powerful German arms manufacturer in July. A fire in a warehouse in the United Kingdom caused by the explosion of a device found on a plane in October. And more recently, the crash of a cargo plane in Lithuania in which a man died.

Three examples, among dozens of others, of accidents whose denominator could always be the same: Russia. “We see an increasingly aggressive Russia,” said Darius Jauniskis, the head of the Lithuanian intelligence services a week ago.

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In the conflict between it and Ukraine, Moscow is not limiting itself to classic military strikes. Vladimir Putin has chosen to wage what some call a “hybrid war”, that is to say fighting his adversaries with means that are not necessarily military. From sabotage of submarine cables to cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, the Kremlin deploys a range of varied means.

“They are on a permanent mission”

In a speech given on Friday, November 29 at the British Embassy in Paris, Richard Moore, head of the British Foreign Intelligence Service, indicated that MI6 and the Directorate General for External Security (DGSE) are currently joining forces to fight against these malicious acts. “We recently uncovered a stunningly reckless Russian sabotage campaign in Europe, even as Putin and his cronies resort to the nuclear sword to sow fear about the consequences of aiding Ukraine.”

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Similar words were spoken on October 9 by Ken McCallum, Director General of MI5 regarding the GRU (Russian military intelligence): “We must expect Russia’s acts of aggression to continue at home. […] They are on a constant mission to sow disorder and their dangerous actions are carried out with increasing recklessness.”

In France, the threat is also taken very seriously, as Sébastien Lecornu suggested in October. “We are seeing repeated cyber threats, particularly against defense companies mobilized in aid to Ukraine. They benefit from a reinforced support plan from the ministry.” And the Minister of the Armed Forces added “that security around certain bosses of the defense industry was closely monitored”.

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Collaboration productive

The two services fully appreciate the current risks and are alarmed by the wait-and-see attitude of certain allies, notably the United States, due to the election of Donald Trump. “The cost of inaction would be infinitely higher. If Putin succeeds, China will face the consequences, North Korea will be emboldened and Iran will become even more dangerous,” warned Richard Moore.

To intensify pressure on the West, Russia could further expand the scale of its sabotage campaigns. According to Nicolas Lerner, the head of the DGSE, “the actions (of the two British and French services, editor’s note) have made it possible in recent years to detect, anticipate and react jointly against all renewed forms of Russian aggressiveness and particularly of the Russian services towards us”. And therefore to renew its confidence in the Richard Moore teams with whom the collaboration seems to be working.