Tobacco prices in 2025: A boon for traffickers and a pitfall for the State?

As the price of a packet of cigarettes prepares to cross the 12.70 euro mark in 2025, a question arises: is this strategy really effective? If the government hopes to curb smoking, the figures show another reality. The parallel tobacco market is exploding, leading to abysmal losses for the State and growing concerns for tobacconists.

Taxation that feeds the black market

The national plan to combat tobacco is mainly based on increasing prices. The idea? Make tobacco less accessible and encourage smokers to give up the habit. But in reality, this policy seems above all to fuel another scourge: smuggling and counterfeiting.

In 2023, the parallel market represented 38% of the total tobacco market in France, compared to 23% in 2019. That is to say a dizzying increase in just four years. This illegal trade is now worth more than 2 billion euros, a real pit for the State, deprived of essential tax revenue. And the worst? Traffickers are innovating, even producing tobacco directly in France using ultra-profitable clandestine factories.

Tobacconists on the front line facing the crisis

This explosion of the parallel market also harms tobacconists, already weakened by a structural drop in sales. With turnover reduced by these illegal circuits, professionals are sounding the alarm.

Philippe Coy, president of the Confederation of tobacconists, calls for a moratorium on tobacco taxation. According to him, continuing to increase taxes amounts to widening the gap between French prices and those of neighboring countries, a real boon for traffickers.

“A package for 12.70 euros in France compared to less than 5 euros in Spain is opening the door wide to parallel markets,” he laments.

Social networks and encrypted messaging applications also play a crucial role in the distribution of this illegal tobacco, making the fight even more complex for the authorities.

The coming battle: innovation or repression?

Faced with this situation, two opposing visions exist: should we continue to rely on repression to stem this clandestine trade, or should we completely reinvent anti-tobacco policy?

Some experts say it's time for a more balanced approach. For example, investing in prevention and support for smokers who want to quit could prove more effective in the long term than tax pressure alone. At the same time, strengthening controls at borders and on online platforms is becoming an absolute necessity.