While bitcoin approaches the $100,000 markits status as a digital asset is experiencing new momentum. Indeed, after reaching almost 98 000 dollarsit significantly exceeds the performance of traditional assets such as gold or stocks in 2024, according to recent analyses. But this rise raises fundamental questions: will it become a credible reserve currency or will it remain a speculative asset?
Behind this explosion of value, political and economic factors mingle. In the United States, a potential support from Donald Trumpfuture president, fuels the hopes of bitcoin defenders. In Switzerland, influential figures are pushing for institutional recognition, although skeptics persist.
Unprecedented performance on the financial markets
Since January 2024, the value of bitcoin has jumped 120%, eclipsing the performance of gold and major stock indices. Last Friday, its price briefly exceeded 98 000 dollarsmarking a historic record. In comparison, the American Nasdaq Composite indexthe driving force behind large technology companies, has only grown by 30 % over the same period, a figure comparable to that of gold. As for the Swiss stock market index SMIit recorded only a moderate increase in 5,3 %.
This meteoric progression only amplifies interest in this cryptocurrency which, in 2010, was worth only a few cents. But this surge is also attracting criticism, particularly on the viability of bitcoin as an asset class in the long term. Although figures like Niklas Nikolajsenpresident of the Bitcoin Association Switzerland, are campaigning for its recognition as a monetary reserve, fluctuations in its price remain a major obstacle.
Political and institutional validation in question
The rise of bitcoin is not just a market affair. In the United States, the election of Donald Trump could change the situation. During his campaign, he raised the possibility of create a national cryptocurrency reservea prospect that could shake up the global economic landscape. Such a move would mark an unprecedented validation, forcing institutional investors to integrate bitcoin into their strategies.
In Switzerland, the debate is just as lively. Some experts, like Rino Borinibelieve that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could include bitcoin in its reserves alongside gold within five years. However, this proposal divides. Martin Schlegelpresident of the SNB, recently described cryptocurrencies as « niche phenomenon »a position that reflects persistent skepticism about their volatility and lack of transparency.
Despite these reluctances, the growing weight of the bitcoin market, estimated today at $1.9 trillioncould become difficult to ignore. As its adoption broadens, it gains credibility, even as competitors remain in ambush.
The structural limits and challenges of bitcoin
Although its adoption is growing, bitcoin continues to suffer from two major weaknesses, namely its ecological impact and its value fluctuations. According to recent estimates, the network consumes as much energy as Egypta country of 120 million inhabitants. This carbon footprint has sparked criticism from governments and investors concerned about environmental issues.
Moreover, volatility remains a brake for institutional investors. Although its price fluctuations have reduced over time, they remain too significant to make it attractive to pension funds and sovereign funds.
Furthermore, the future of bitcoin is also threatened by competition. According to David Yermack, professor at New York University, cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Tether could outperform bitcoin thanks to more efficient technologies better adapted to market needs. He compares this dynamic to other sectors, where pioneers are often replaced by more efficient solutions.
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