Social security, political crisis… What will happen if it is not voted on

This Monday, December 2, 2024, the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) goes before the National Assembly. And Michel Barnier is more than ever threatened by a motion of censure voted jointly by the left and the National Rally, synonymous with Matignon's departure. This is why it could be tempted to trigger article 49.3 to have the text adopted without a vote. “The RN will activate the mechanism of the vote of censure, barring a last minute miracle,” declared the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, this morning at the microphone of RMC.

As a reminder, the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), examined in Parliament this Monday and the finance bill (PLF), are two different things. If the two projects are presented at the same time, their nature differs. While the PLF sets the State budget for the coming year (expenditures and revenues), the PLFSS aims to control social and health expenditures and Social Security revenues. The preparation of this PLFSS falls within the competence of the government.

Motion of censure, rejection, 49-3, vote… Options on the table

A scenario could block the Prime Minister if he wishes to activate 49.3: the vote on a motion of rejection (initiated by the PS), by the rest of the opposition. A motion for prior rejection – examined at 3 p.m. this Monday – will whatever happens be tabled by the Socialists, as announced this Sunday by PS deputy Jérôme Guedj. The adoption of a motion to reject entails the rejection of the text. This would allow Michel Barnier to benefit from an additional reprieve, while the text returns by parliamentary shuttle. Please note, the deadline for examining the text is Thursday, December 5. Here, without the possibility of drawing 49.3, Michel Barnier could be tempted to pass the text of the Budget by ordinance (as explained below). Jérôme Guedj, for his part, pleads for a “new reading, and a possibility of negotiations”, with BFMTV. If the motion to reject is not adopted, debates on the text of the PLFSS could begin in the hemicycle.

Conversely, if 49.3 is triggered by Michel Barnier this Monday, December 2, possibly around “6 p.m.”, according to BFMTV, a motion of censure will be filed. If it is voted for by the forces of the New Popular Front and the National Rally, the government will fall. Whatever happens, a possible motion of censure will only be studied and debated from Wednesday December 4 (48 hours after its submission). Subsequently, if it is adopted, the Prime Minister will have to resign, and Emmanuel Macron will be forced to accept it. Since the president cannot dissolve the National Assembly less than a year after a previous dissolution, new legislative elections cannot be organized. The problem for the country would therefore be: how to form a new government to represent a budget, and who will it be composed of? A situation which could lead to real political and economic chaos.

If Michel Barnier were to be overthrown, the fate of the budget would be uncertain to say the least, which would greatly worry the Minister of Justice, Didier Migaud: “The consequence could be very serious for the country (…) This is the “absence of budget, absence of finance law, or relying on 2024 revenues, that is to say with a heavy deficit, an update which is not being done”, warned the Minister of Justice on November 25 on France 2. Otherwise said, it would be a status quo in relation to the 2024 budget. The government recently expected a public deficit reaching 6.1% of GDP this year, a target far from the initial ambition of 4.4% of GDP, or that of last spring (5.1%).

On the other hand, if the Prime Minister decides to let parliamentarians vote – without using 49.3 – two options arise. Either the PLFSS is adopted or it is rejected by the National Assembly. The moment, if he wishes, to put in place the budget by ordinances. “This could be intelligent. There would be a vote on the budget and a rejection and we would come back to the Senate text. And from 50 days of debate (for the PLFSS), we can apply this budget by ordinance and it happens this week”, indicates Benjamin Morel, political scientist and lecturer in public law, on RMC.

Special law and ordinances, how does it work?

Article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF) allows the country to operate without a government and without a voted budget. This “joker” is based on a “special bill authorizing it to collect existing taxes”, until the vote on a next finance bill at the start of next year. In other words, by continuing to apply the 2024 Budget.

Please note, if the debates for the adoption of the finance bill (PLF) exceed 70 days, “the provisions of the finance bill may be brought into force by ordinance”, indicates article 47 of the Basic Law. This is the last constitutional hypothesis. LCP recalls that the end of the constitutional deadline is set for December 21, 2024, this year. This ordinance has never been used. On the other hand, such an outcome would do nothing against a motion of censure. If censorship were passed, the country would have a budget, but would no longer have a government.

A technical government? The 3 options for after Barnier

What solutions are available to Emmanuel Macron to ensure continuity? First, the head of state could decide to appoint a government of experts, called “technical”. This government would be made up of senior civil servants and/or specialists in their field. The name of Thierry Beaudet, president of the Economic and Social Environmental Council, had been circulating for a while to replace Gabriel Attal. Without great reform ambition on the political level, a technical government would make it possible to manage the country in a trans-partisan manner in an extremely unstable climate in the National Assembly.

Emmanuel Macron could also choose the left in power. But here the problem also comes from the left itself. If the New Popular Front won the last early legislative elections, the alliance has never been able to bring out a strong personality to propose to the head of state for the post of Prime Minister. The name of Lucie Castets was quickly dismissed by the president. In addition, relations between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the Socialist Party are tense to say the least. “The PS is looking for allies. But it will be without LFI”, indicated the rebellious leader on BFMTV, after the latest statements in the media from two big socialist fish this weekend: the boss of deputies Boris Vallaud and the mayor of Saint-Ouen, Karim Bouamrane. The first city wishes to “pick up the thread” of what “the NFP groups” “started to do in mid-August”, he said on France Inter this Sunday. An affront for Jean-Luc Mélenchon: “ Alert. The PS is in the process of organizing a new common base with others in place of the New Popular Front”. An almost open war which should not reassure Emmanuel Macron, if the latter had considered the idea, even if it were only a few seconds, to appoint a new left-wing Prime Minister.

If Michel Barnier were overthrown, the President of the Republic could reappoint him directly to Matignon. A maneuver used only once during the only motion of censure adopted under the Fifth Republic, in 1962. At the time, Charles de Gaulle had reappointed Georges Pompidou as head of government. If such a decision is technically possible, it goes against the spirit of the French Constitution. As a reminder, a “resigning government” can also postpone current affairs for several weeks, or even a few months, before the appointment of a new government team. Finally, a final scenario – which comes back on the table in the columns of certain media – is quite simply the resignation of the head of state, Emmanuel Macron.