what would be the timeline if the government fell?

The government could use 49.3 as of Monday and expose itself to a motion of censure during the week which could have serious consequences. But Michel Barnier still has other options. A little preview of the hectic political calendar to come.

It's a dangerous week for the government. The destiny of the executive could change as early as this Monday, while Prime Minister Michel Barnier could resort to 49.3 on the occasion of the presentation of the text of the social security law, first part of the budget.

The Social Security financing bill must be examined from 3 p.m. And “barring a miracle” by then, the RN will vote for censorship, the president of the far-right party Jordan Bardella promised this Monday on RTL.

Clearly, the debates must start this Monday at 3 p.m. and the government could initiate 49.3 after the discussions around 6 p.m. In the process, the RN would vote on a motion of censure with the left oppositions: “The government cannot fall today, it would be Wednesday”, explains this Monday on RMC et RMC Story Benjamin Morel, political scientist and lecturer in public law at Paris II Panthéon-Assas.

“It takes 48 hours to discuss a motion of censure and it would therefore be Wednesday but today we will very probably know if the government will fall. We will have the end of the story on Wednesday,” he insists.

Follow our live >>> Budget: Bardella assures that the RN will vote for censorship of the Barnier government “barring a miracle”

And in the wake of the vote on the motion of censure, the government would fall “in this very moment”: “It's not like the month of July where we had to wait for Emmanuel Macron to accept the resignation of the government. This is not the case with the motion of censure, the government immediately resigns and carries on with current affairs. We would have a government that was a bit dead and alive and we would have to quickly appoint someone to have a budget by December 31,” warns Benjamin Morel.

The government that should follow could be a “technical government”, without members of apparent political parties, senior civil servants, non-divisive figures “and for which no one has to take responsibility”. “For groups it’s less problematic,” explains Benjamin Morel.

Towards a resignation of Emmanuel Macron?

And “if the government of Michel Barnier falls, I think that the question that will be asked is that of the departure of the President of the Republic”, anticipates for his part the coordinator of La France insoumise Manuel Bompard on Europe1/CNews/LesEchos.

This option could “reshuffle a few cards but would not resolve the problems in the short term”, warns Benjamin Morel. “We need a budget before December 31 and the time to organize elections will be in January. Furthermore, in theory a President of the Republic cannot dissolve the National Assembly, even if he resigns, before the month of July. It would be unconstitutional,” he asserts.

There remains one option for Michel Barnier, that of doing without 49.3 and trying to have his budget voted on democratically before the National Assembly: “That could be intelligent. There would be a vote on the budget and a rejection and we would come back on the Senate text and from 50 days of debate, we can apply this budget by order and it will happen this week,” warns Benjamin Morel.

Around Thursday December 5 or Friday December 6, Prime Minister Michel Barnier could therefore do without a vote: “But the oppositions risk not being counted on. There is no need for 49.3 for a motion of censure, it is enough for 58 deputies to submit one,” explains the constitutionalist.

The executive tries to negotiate until the end. The government remains “open to dialogue” assures this Monday its spokesperson Maud Bregeon who warns: “The best interest of the country is that this country has a budget and does not sink into uncertainty” and “each deputy “left or RN voting censorship “will have to be held accountable in his constituency”. See you this Monday at 3 p.m. for the start of hostilities.