How far will the oil giant's stock market descent into hell go?

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– TotalEnergies

TotalEnergies has experienced a real berezina on the stock market in recent months, the action of the oil and renewable energy giant having fallen by 23% (at the time of writing) since the historic record of 70.11 euros registered in last April. A poor performance which is partly explained by the marked plunge (-21%) in the price of a barrel of oil since its major peak in April. And the share's fall has accelerated since the end of October, given the publication by TotalEnergies of quarterly accounts that were worse than expected (and poorly received by shareholders and financial analysts) and hopes of a ceasefire in Lebanon (which somewhat reduced fears of military escalation in the Middle East and therefore weighed down oil prices) at the start of the week.

At this stage, the trajectory of oil prices remains quite uncertain, between questions about the evolution of demand for hydrocarbons (the economies of many countries remain under pressure), the impact of Donald Trump's economic policy during of his second term, persistent geopolitical risks (tensions in the Near East and the Middle East remain, while there are currently fears of military escalation with Russia) and the evolution of production in oil-producing countries (the Emirates United Arabs and Kazakhstan – among others – want to increase their production).

TotalEnergies plunged on the stock market after its poor quarterly results, analysts revised their copies

TotalEnergies suffered on the stock market, from the end of October, from the salvo of downward revisions of financial analysts' price targets, after the publication of disappointing quarterly accounts. Thus, Zacks reduced its price target from 64 to 61 euros, while Mediobanca reduced its from 66.50 to 62.50 euros and Berenberg from 71 to 69 euros. After publishing a weaker than expected third quarter, the German bank lowered its results forecasts for TotalEnergies. This summer's outage on the Australian Ichthys LNG (LNG or liquefied natural gas) project, production disruptions in Libya and the plunge in refining margins weighed down the quarterly results of TotalEnergies, which thus performed less well than its competitors , details AlphaValue.

Reasons to hope for a gradual recovery in TotalEnergies shares?

Beyond TotalEnergies' poor quarterly results, the stock appears relatively cheap, with the oil giant paying less than 7 times expected profits for 2024, for a dividend yield of more than 6%. And if we take into account the share buybacks carried out by TotalEnergies, the overall shareholder remuneration (12%) is very attractive in the eyes of Berenberg, for whom the value is one of its 4 favorite stocks within the oil and gas sector. And TotalEnergies' project portfolio is growing rapidly. For its part, AlphaValue underlines that the start of the Mero-3 project off the coast of Brazil and the recovery in refining margins should enable an improvement in TotalEnergies' results in the fourth quarter (compared to the third quarter).

Momentum subscribers were warned at the right time of the risk of TotalEnergies' plunge on the stock market

While TotalEnergies' plunge on the stock market materialized, subscribers to Momentum, Capital's daily premium investment newsletter, were warned in advance (shortly before the marked fall in TotalEnergies shares) of this risk. , then considered very high by our team. Discover in Momentum our latest analysis on the outlook for TotalEnergies shares. And find every day our expectations on the CAC 40 and stocks listed on the stock exchange. Exceptionally, on the occasion of Black Fridaybenefit from a 40% reduction on the price of an annual subscription. To take advantage of it, simply click on the link inserted above in this article.