in Romania, the hypothesis of the arrival of the far right to power alarms Ukraine and its allies

“I’m protesting because I’m really afraid for our future.” Maria and a few hundred students met to protest on Thursday at University Square in Bucharest, like every evening since the announcement of the results of the first round of the presidential election in Romania. Against a backdrop of anti-fascist slogans, some of the youth express their fears of a possible rise to power of the far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu. “I am really worried about the future of my countryalso confides Alex, a 23-year-old political science student. If we vote for Georgescu, we will say goodbye to NATO, goodbye to the EU and we will have to return to our old friend, Russia.”

At a time when Romanians are already returning to the polls, Sunday December 1, for the legislative elections, the risk of a political upheaval at the head of the country is taken very seriously by the population as well as in Western chancelleries. The two chambers of Parliament must be renewed by proportional representation and the far right is credited in the polls with more than 30% of voting intentions.

Against a backdrop of political crisis following the controversial decision of the Constitutional Court to recount the ballots of the first round of the presidential election, the traditional parties could be victims of the wind of “disengagement” which is sweeping through Romanian society – from the legislative elections, then during the second round normally planned between Calin Georgescu and the centrist candidate, Elena Lasconi.

European diplomats hope to avoid the worst-case scenario which would see the arrival in Parliament of a (even relative) far-right majority and a pro-Russian candidate for the presidency. According to the Romanian constitution (a PDF)the head of state in Romania does not have powers as extensive as in France, but he is the commander of the armed forces, has diplomatic prerogatives and appoints a candidate for the post of Prime Minister. “We are in a serious situation, with a candidate who, for the first time since the end of communism, could want to leave NATO”worries former Romanian diplomat Sébastien Slavitescu.

Calin Georgescu has tried to reassure in recent days by declaring that it was false to say that he intended to leave NATO and the EU. The fact remains that he has castigated the Atlantic Alliance several times in the past. “He criticized NATO and the anti-missile shield, considered a big diplomatic error, according to him”observes Sergiu Miscoiu, professor of political science at the University of Cluj. Let us recall that Moscow has constantly denounced this anti-missile system based in Romania as a threat against it.

“He has a breaking speech and, with him, we would have a vision closer to that of Viktor Orban’s Hungary in its behavior towards Russia.”

Sergiu Miscoiu, professor of political science at the University of Cluj

at franceinfo

Romania, which shares a border of some 650 kilometers with Ukraine, is currently a strategic pillar of NATO. The alliance has deployed several thousand men in the country in various installations, such as the Deveselu anti-missile air base, the Cincu camp where France leads an international battalion or the establishment in Mihail-Kogalniceanu, near the Black Sea.

With the war in Ukraine, NATO set up a so-called reassurance mission, to prevent the conflict from spilling over into the territory of this member state. Because for several months, drones have regularly fallen on Romanian territory. “These are not errors as Moscow says, they are provocations”believes Sébastien Slavitescu.

Calin Georgescu therefore plays on the legitimate fear for some Romanians of seeing the war in Ukraine spill over into their territory. More than a pure and simple exit from NATO, he could request the closure of certain installations in order to send a message of appeasement to Russia. Because the far-right candidate campaigned on the theme of peace, believing that it was necessary to stop aid to kyiv, refusing to be “drawn into a conflict that is not ours”.

A message heard by some Romanians, even if a majority remains very hostile to the Kremlin. “There is no admiration from voters for Russia, but it is a sort of defense mechanism, saying to themselves: 'We must fear Moscow, which is too strong, and we are too small'”estimates Sergiu Miscoiu.

“I want to say clearly and distinctly: the war in Ukraine must end immediately. For me, this is a strategy for peace.”

Calin Georgescu

after the first round of the presidential election where he came first

The hypothesis of the far right coming to power and Romania disengaging could therefore have direct consequences on kyiv, already strained by nearly three years of war. In addition to welcoming Ukrainian refugees, Bucharest delivers weapons and financial support to its neighbor. “They are among the biggest contributors, even if Romania does not officially communicate the amount so as not to enter into direct confrontation with Moscow”explains Sébastien Slavitescu.

Romania also played a crucial role in allowing Ukraine's agricultural surpluses to be exported via the Danube, following Russia's decision to close the Black Sea corridor in July 2023. The route through the Romanian port of Constanta is now secondary since the re-establishment of the Bosphorus route, but it remains an effective fallback solution.

In this context, the unpredictable character of Calin Georgescu is worrying. This specialist in sustainable development, who has held several important positions in international institutions, has stood out as much for his ability to praise figures of Romanian fascism as for his conspiratorial outings during the Covid health crisis.

His numerous pro-Russian positions are also not likely to reassure Westerners. “He has said on several occasions that he is an admirer of Vladimir Putin and his regime. Just see how he reproduces the same images, photographing himself in an ice bath, on horseback or as a judoka on a tatami”observes Sergiu Miscoiu.

Calin Georgescu has said in the past that Vladimir Putin is “one of the few leaders” worthy of the name. “In his books, from 2014, he embraces the rhetoric of the Kremlin, he says that Ukraine does not exist, that it is a fictitious state. He is one of those ultranationalists who imagine with the war being able to recover the north of Bukovina [région ukrainienne ayant appartenu à la Roumanie]“explains Cristian Preda, professor of political science at the University of Bucharest and former MEP of the EPP. For its part, the Russian government declared “not knowing well” this candidate who created a surprise by thwarting all the polls, in particular thanks to a campaign strategy focused on the social network TikTok.

However, many observers have been wondering in recent days about the possibility of Russian interference behind this sudden rise. “They intervened in Georgia and Moldova. It would therefore be surprising if Russia did not also try in Romania, with much higher stakes”notes Sébastien Slavitescu. “We have more and more information on the involvement of companies which had already acted during the elections in Moldova and which therefore had a ready-to-use strategy”completes Sergiu Miscoiu. The Romanian authorities also mention “cyberattacks” aimed at “influence the regularity of the electoral process”noting “growing interest” from Russia “in the current context of regional security”.