COP29 in Baku: what results?

COP29 (Conference of the Parties), organized under the auspices of the UN, was held from November 11 to 23 in Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, a hydrocarbon-producing country. Following the COP28 in Dubai, this major international meeting aimed in particular to define the modalities of financing the fight against climate change and the distribution of efforts between the so-called “North” and “South” countries. What were the topics on the agenda? What were the decisions adopted during COP29? What are the prospects for the next COP in Brazil? Interview with Mathilde Jourde, researcher at IRIS within the Climate, Energy and Security Program.

In what geopolitical context was COP29 held? What were the main topics of discussion?

According to Gaïa Febvre, head of international policies at the Climate Action Network, “multilateralism is no longer that of 2015”. COP29, organized in Baku from November 11 to 22, took place in a particularly tense international climate, marked by the fragmentation of States, the resurgence of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, and the rise of populist and climate-sceptical discourse. , particularly in the United States and Argentina. These tensions were reflected in the notable absence of several leaders, such as Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping or Lula da Silva. In comparison, COP28 in Dubai had raised hopes with historic progress, including a historic agreement on the “transition away from fossil fuels” and the creation of the “loss and damage” fund to help the most vulnerable countries facing climate impacts. . Continuing on, COP29, often referred to as the “financing COP”, aimed to concretize the financial commitments associated with these agreements.

Two major agreements emerged. The first, adopted at the opening, concerns the establishment of a new carbon market, thus unblocking the negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which remained in abeyance for almost a decade. The objective of this agreement is in particular to establish a new system that is more efficient than the voluntary market currently in place, which facilitates abuses linked to the carbon market. This new framework requires project leaders to assess and mitigate the environmental and social impacts of their activities and to demonstrate their contribution to sustainable development objectives. However, this agreement was criticized by several NGOs for the lack of transparency surrounding its adoption and the many questions still pending.

The second agreement, concluded after extension of discussions, concerns the “new quantified collective objective” (NCQG), intended to strengthen the financial solidarity of the “Global North”, from Annex I, towards the nations of the “Global South”. If, in 2009 in Copenhagen, rich countries had committed to mobilizing 100 billion dollars per year for developing countries, this objective, reached late two years late, required a review before 2025 within the framework of the Paris Agreement. Negotiations around this amount, called “quantum”, constituted one of the main issues of this COP29. While the countries of the South demanded 1.3 trillion dollars, the parties to the conference finally agreed on a quantum of 300 billion dollars. The details of this financing, whether it is their format (loan or donation) or their origin (public, private, multilateral, bilateral), will have to be specified during the upcoming interim negotiations.

What assessment can we draw up from this COP, particularly in terms of financing the fight against climate change?

For Wopke Hoekstra, climate commissioner of the European Union (EU), COP29 “will be remembered as the start of a new era in financing the fight against climate change”. This observation, however, is not shared by the countries of the “Global South” who found this amount “insignificant” according to Chandni Raina, delegate of the Indian delegation.

Other states, such as France, have also deplored this agreement as being “not up to the challenges”. Adjusted for inflation, the $300 billion is almost equal to the $100 billion promised in 2009, according to members of the Africa group. Several States have also criticized the nature of this financing, in particular the partial granting in the form of loans, which risks exacerbating the debt crisis hitting the economies of the “Global South”. To show their dissatisfaction, the most vulnerable countries stormily left a negotiation during the extensions of the COP, in order to protest against the proposed agreement, well below their request for financial aid. Furthermore, discussions around the NCQG (new quantified collective objective) monopolized the first week of negotiations without the G20 managing to resolve the impasse, contenting itself with reiterating the importance of setting a financial objective in Baku.

The European Union, despite its ambitions, also expressed its disappointment at the failure to expand the list of contributors, established in 1992. Western countries wanted to include other economic powers, such as China, Singapore , South Korea or even some of the Gulf States, due to their substantial greenhouse gas emissions. However, these States refused to join the group of contributors, limiting themselves to voluntary participation.

The absence of explicit mention of the exit from fossil fuels, although a major achievement of COP28, has also caused frustration within certain groups, including the countries of the European Union. This omission is partly explained by the position displayed at the opening of the conference by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, who affirmed that “oil and gas are a gift from God”. The final document published on Sunday as part of the plenary also underlines that “transition fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security”. However, IPCC scientists regularly remind us of the importance of putting an end to all investment in these energy sources, which are responsible for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Saudi Arabia has actively worked to exclude any explicit reference to COP28 commitments in the new agreements, an effort supported by the 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists present in Baku. The latter, according to an InfluenceMap report, notably used narratives aimed at blocking discussions, such as speeches on “skepticism about solutions” and on “accessibility and energy security”, according to an InfluenceMap report.

Finally, COP29 was all the more disappointing because the focus on the NCGQ negotiations eclipsed other crucial issues, such as those related to mitigation, adaptation, the global stocktake, as well as questions of gender.
What prospects are emerging for COP 30, scheduled in a year in Belém, Brazil?

At the end of a COP29 with mixed results, COP30, scheduled for 2025 in Belém, Brazil, will address crucial issues. The discussions started in Baku, including the financing modalities of the NCQG, will be deepened, while postponed topics, such as the adoption of the text on mitigation and the “loss and damage” fund, will appear on the agenda .

Under the Paris Agreement, States will have to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) before February 2025. This deadline coincides with ten years of the Paris Agreement, marking a new cycle of climate ambitions. Some countries have already revealed their NDCs, such as the United Kingdom, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates, thus illustrating some disparities. The United Kingdom has notably revised its commitments upwards and committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by “at least 81%” by 2035, a commitment praised for its ambitious objectives. Brazil also increased its greenhouse gas reduction target from 59% to 67% by 2035. Finally, the United Arab Emirates is aiming for a reduction of 47% by 2035, an objective considered insufficient to achieve the objectives of the Paris agreement by the Climate Action Tracker.

COP30 will also highlight themes that remained secondary during COP29, such as deforestation, a particularly symbolic issue in the Amazonian context which will host the negotiations. Faced with the criticism and disappointments caused by the previous edition, Brazil announced its ambition to make this conference a real turning point. Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment, described COP30 as the “COP of COPs”.