“We hope that [la réunion] will lead to concrete and significant results“, declared Friday Andriy Sybiha, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, specifying that kyiv will raise “the question of [comment] limit Russia’s ability to produce this type of weaponry“.
Launch of a ballistic missile on Ukraine: Putin is intimidating, how worried should we be?
Dependence on international assistance
Russia’s use of a hypersonic ballistic missilewill not change or the course of the conflict nor the determination of NATO allies to support Ukraine“, assured Farah Dakhlallah, NATO spokesperson.
In fact, it appears today that the two belligerents need military support from their allies to support their respective war efforts. Certainly, at the level of Ukraine’s own production of weapons, “there is a real move upmarket, both technical and quantitativeanalyzes Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies, attached to the University of Lyon III. But in reality, kyiv is in a structural deficit vis-à-vis Moscow. The front has great difficulty moving forward and operations, both offensive and defensive, are costly. You therefore consume more resources than you produce. The whole question is being able to manage this tight flow. And Ukraine’s production alone still does not make it possible to ensure in the long term a so-called ‘acceptable’ deficit threshold, in order to be able to act. Hence the importance of Western aid, and in particular American aid.“
gullEven though the Europeans are very important partners for Ukraine, they cannot replace the United States.
The European Union and its member states have become the leading providers of financial aid to Ukraine, ahead of the United States. “However, despite the increase in production, this support remains in deficitestimates the researcher. On the one hand because many States have drawn on their stocks which were weak, on the other hand because the Europeans themselves are in the process of rearming to regain their power.“
On the Russian side, even if it is less important than that of Ukraine, this structural deficit also exists. “With this war of attrition, Russia has exhausted a large part of its stocks of modern armored systems and munitions. So the contribution of any ally, such as Iranian drones and North Korean soldiers, is not anecdotal and is always useful for Russia.“
By authorizing it to use long-range missiles, Joe Biden prepares Ukraine for Trump’s arrival: “The decision should have come sooner”
The effect of the arrival of Donald Trump
This Tuesday’s meeting is part of a logic of geostrategic hybridization of the conflict in Ukraine: Moscow benefits from the military intervention of North Korea, while kyiv is now authorized to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles. range provided by its Western allies.
The imminent arrival of Donald Trump at the White House is also a new parameter which significantly changes the logic of war. While the conflict began under the mandate of the Biden administration, the Republican shows his desire to put an end to it as quickly as possible.
What would happen if the United States completely stopped its support for the Ukrainians? “Even if the Europeans are very important partners for Ukraine, and if they raise the threshold for deliveries, they cannot replace the United States… So if there is a total cessation of American aid, that will be a game changer on the front. If we wipe out all American support, which includes weapons, planning assistance and intelligence, there will inevitably be a crisis.”
We are not there yet, tempers our interlocutor. “The position held by Donald Trump, even if it is tougher, is not that of a stop. This scenario is possible, of course, but it is not inevitable. We will have to take the time to see, and differentiate between announcements and concrete actions [du Républicain].“
“Be careful not to overinterpret this new datainsists Thibault Fouillet. We must keep in mind a principle of reality. When we analyze Donald Trump’s speech, even if there are very few consistencies, we find only one at the level of foreign policy. This is the notion of conditionality. The United States will eventually help kyiv, if it is favorable to its interests. It will not be a blank check.“
Related News :