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“Failure is not an option”: after eleven days of negotiations, what compromise will Cop29 end with?

2 “Gift from God”

The day after the opening of the Cop, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev, repeated and assumed his expression “gift from God” to designate the hydrocarbons, which have made his country rich. “Quote me when I say it’s a gift from God. I want to repeat it here today, in front of this audience. Any natural resource, oil, gas, wind, solar, gold, silver, copper: these are natural resources and countries should not be blamed for having them and providing them to the markets, because the markets need them.” Azerbaijan is the second oil and gas power in a row to chair climate negotiations, after the United Arab Emirates last year.

3 “Unworthy of a Cop presidency”

Cop29 was marked by a diplomatic incident between the organizing country and . Before that, it was already established that Emmanuel Macron would not go there. Then, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, French Minister for Ecological Transition, canceled her trip. The president of Azebaijan cited French colonial history and spoke of “crimes” of “President Macron’s regime” in its overseas territories, including New Caledonia. “Unacceptable” attacks, according to the French minister, for whom it was “unworthy of a COP presidency”.

4 “Absurd”

In an interview with AFP on the sidelines of the conference, former American Vice President Al Gore criticized his organization in Azerbaijan. “It is absurd to have these petrostates that are so dependent on continuing to sell oil and gas to host the COPs, because it is hard not to see that they have a conflict of interest direct,” he said on November 15, the same day as the circulation of a new proposed compromise text. But “there is still no clear sign on the direction because the text has not yet been sufficiently shortened, with many options still on the table,” lamented an observer to AFP.

“If the world listened to scientists, maybe we wouldn’t make these Cops”

Joyce Kimutai, global warming expertoyce. (Nick Perry/AFP)

5 “Our action is very slow”

Participating in the COP, where politics often takes precedence over science, can be discouraging, Joyce Kimutai, an expert on global warming in an African country prone to disasters, told AFP on November 17. “If the world listened to the scientists, maybe we wouldn't do these Cops,” this 36-year-old Kenyan climatologist told AFP. “Our action is very slow. We are afraid to take bold steps. And I don’t understand why,” she confides. “It's really frustrating,” says Ms. Kimutai, “I try to stay optimistic, but honestly, there are days when I wake up feeling very pessimistic.”

“Let’s stop the theater and get down to business. [La Cop] can't afford for everyone to say you first”

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Climate. (EPA-EFE/IGOR KOVALENKO)

6 “Let’s stop the theater”

After the mid-Cop29 Sunday break, on November 18, it was the UN that stepped up to the plate: “Let’s stop the theater and get down to business,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Climate, facing to the classic blockage between the rich who demand more efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and the rest of the world who demand their financial promises first. The Cop “cannot afford for everyone to say you first”, or for countries to wait for others to take the first step, Simon Stiell said.

“We must not leave Baku without a clear figure”

7 “Keep the pressure on”

On November 19, in an interview with Les Échos, Agnès Pannier-Runacher assured that “the exit from fossil fuels remains relevant” and that we must “keep up the pressure” in this direction. “The subject of North-South financing is only intended to exist because we must finance this exit” from fossil fuels, underlined the minister, who assures “negotiate remotely to achieve the best level of ambition”. She announced that she “wants COP29 to be a success” but recognized that given the poor progress of the work, it appears “less well prepared than previous editions”. The day before, the European commissioner in charge of climate negotiations, Wopke Hoekstra, declared that the EU would “show the way” but called on other countries to contribute.

8 “Unacceptable as it stands”

This Thursday, November 21, a ten-page provisional text was published by the presidency. After years of negotiations, the text only indicates “X”s in place of the amounts, even if these are expressed in “thousands of billions”. It satisfied no one, because it “caricatures the positions of developed and developing countries”, deplores Joe Thwaites, of the NGO NRDC. “It is clearly unacceptable as it stands,” thundered Wopke Hoekstra.

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