Because as its President Volodymyr Zelensky once again reminded us after the deadly missile attacks that hit residential areas in the city of Odessa on Monday. “The only way to stop this terror for good is to eliminate Russia’s ability to launch its attacks. Lives could have been saved if we had the ability to destroy launch systems, supply chains […] and Russian war factories” he wrote on X.
“Too late”
But will Biden’s green light change the situation? For Michel Liégeois, professor of international relations at UCLouvain, this is too late an authorization to really impact the conflict. At least, “in the short term. If the decision had been made a year ago, being able to bomb and destroy strategic targets, like the Crimean bridge, it could have had an effect. Now it’s too late.“
Especially since the Americans are currently the only Westerners to authorize this new authorization of their weapons: Italy has already announced that it will not authorize it and Germany should remain cautious. Unless she wants to rush the negotiations. “On the German side, we are in a phase where they want to negotiate“, explains Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael, also professor of international relations at UCLouvain. “They would be able to tell Putin to stop attacking civilian targets. Otherwise, they would authorize the Taurus missiles. This can be a negotiating point.“
Reaction to North Korean support
More than being decisive for the Ukrainian victory, the authorization of Ukrainian strikes in Russia with American weapons”only restores balance“, recalls Michel Liégeois. “Since the first day of the conflict, Russia has bombed the entire territory of Ukraine. The Ukrainians could not fight back. The only weapon they had was drones. It works against very vulnerable sites but it is still very limited compared to these missiles which carry loads of several hundred kilos.“
If this green light sounds like a sort of return to balance in one camp, it completely crosses the red lines drawn by Russia. So is Biden’s change in strategy dangerous? For Michel Liégeois, “It’s a form of escalation. But it is also clearly a response to the arrival of North Korean soldiers.“This support from North Korea, whose contribution of men is estimated at more than 10,000,”is an element of escalation that required a political response. It is still the first time in the conflict that entire units of a third army have come to fight.“
But to speak of real danger, he puts things into perspective. “We have already heard Putin several times brandishing the nuclear threat if the West gets too involved in the conflict. Without really explaining what ‘too much’ meant.“
Peace negotiations?
After 1,000 days of clashes, the question of what comes next is necessarily legitimate. What will happen and how many days will we be able to add to this thousand?
For Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael, the first element to take into account is the approaching winter. “In the region, winter freezes positions quite well. The American authorization to strike Russian soil may change the situation slightly, but the real counter-offensives tend to take place during the summer.“We should therefore not expect strong territorial advances on either side. From there to fostering a climate conducive to peace negotiation?”Maybehe explains. But first there needs to be a ceasefire that could help direct negotiations.“
But are the two countries ready to negotiate? For Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael, this is perhaps the only solution in a conflict where no one seems to be able to gain the upper hand. “We are at a stage where Ukraine cannot lose and Russia cannot win. Or vice versa“, he confirms. It is therefore not surprising to see Volodymyr Zelensky less closed to the idea of discussing. “He said 2025 would be a good year for negotiation“, he emphasizes. “Of course, it is still far away. But we feel in his declaration that total victory, which would be to liberate the entire territory, would no longer be the main objective.“
Favorable to Russia
As for Russia, it is probably still a little too early to agree to discuss. “Their ambitions have been lowered“, affirms Michel Liégeois. There is no longer any question of subjugating all of Ukraine and its regime,”it is the conquest of the Donbass Oblast“priority.”Because this is what will be demanded as a priority at the negotiating table” he continues. “And that to be in a position of strength, it is necessary to create a fait accompli of the total occupation by Russian forces of these claimed territories.“
Although Russia is gradually encroaching on territory in this region of eastern Ukraine, it is still far from this objective. Which does not prevent Michel Liégeois from estimating that “the advantage is rather with Russia” if the parties were to negotiate. And this, despite the small piece of Russian soil controlled by the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region.
Another big unknown in these potential peace negotiations: the position of the United States and its future president Donald Trump. Because apart from his promise to resolve the conflict in 24 hours, we will have to see “whether he is ready to reward armed aggression and review Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders“or if he wants”exert maximum pressure on Moscow to make Russia more reasonable” concludes Michel Liégeois.
Related News :