Olive oil prices to fall by 50 percent

Key information

• Olive oil prices are expected to fall by 50 percent from record levels reached.
• Olive oil production in Spain is expected to rebound significantly, reaching 1.4 million tonnes this year.
• Wholesale prices are expected to fall between November and January, with a gradual return to normal prices in 2025.

The world’s largest olive oil producer, Deoleo, plans significant relief for consumers struggling with high food prices. The company forecasts a 50 percent drop in olive oil prices from their record high, marking a turning point after years of harsh weather that crippled harvests and pushed prices to record lows. unprecedented. Deoleo, the maker of well-known brands such as Bertolli and Carbonell, believes that the worst of the weather-related crisis is over. This optimism is explained by the fact that the harvest is expected to be much more abundant this season.

Industry expectations and projections

These positive forecasts are echoed by the International Olive Council, which predicts a better harvest for most olive oil-producing countries, including Spain, Greece, Portugal and Tunisia. Reports from farmers in southern Europe, particularly hard hit by drought, indicate that Spain’s olive oil production will recover significantly, reaching 1.4 million tonnes this year, up from 850,000 tonnes l ‘last year.

Market stabilization ahead

Although high-quality oils like extra virgin oil may still experience some price fluctuations, Miguel Ángel Guzmán, general sales director of Deoleo, foresees a stabilization of the market and a gradual return to normal prices as the new harvest grows and supply increases. He expects wholesale prices to decline between November and January, and this downward trend to continue through 2025, provided weather conditions remain favorable.

Global impact and price reduction

This planned price reduction is expected to have a global impact, given that Spain produces 40 percent of the world’s olive oil and the Mediterranean region accounts for 80 percent of the world’s supply. Currently, Spanish supermarkets see retail prices for olive oil varying between 9 and 10 euros (7.50 and 8.34 pounds sterling) per liter, but this price is expected to fall to around 5 euros (4.17 pounds sterling) as wholesale prices fall.

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