THE price of transport per containerdeparting from the European Union to China, remained high all summer, at more than $8,000 per container, well above the peak in January, at the start of the Huti crisis in the Red Sea. The trend calmed down in the fall, with a return to $3,000 to $4,000 per container. But we are currently seeing a rebound in prices, surprising for the period, and prices which have already reached $4,500/container.
Congested Dutch ports
The cause, according to Freightos analysts, is a congestion in the port of Hamburg, because cranes are replaced during this usually calmer period. Bad weather conditions in Rotterdam also caused delays at the beginning of November.
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Lunar New Year drives up shipping prices
But above all, demand wakes up earlier with a Lunar New Year on January 29, 2025, when it is often rather in February. Shippers must anticipate and ship goods before factory and logistics facility shutdowns in China. The delays caused by the situation Red Seawhich forces ships to bypass South Africa, increases transit times and absorbs some excess capacity, keeping freight rates high.
Strikes that worry operators
The ongoing negotiations between dockworkers and port operators in the United States are helping to cast some doubt over the coming weeks, since a resumption of the strike is not ruled out, with negotiations on port automation continuing. until January 15. Strikes have also taken place recently in Canada.
The election of Trump, a factor of uncertainty for international trade
While Donald Trump has made no secret of its desire to install new customs duties10% on all goods and 60% on those coming from China, a new episode of trade war is not excluded. In this context, some operators may seek to ship their goods before these barriers are put in place, which would lead to a sharp increase in demand, as in 2018. For Freightos analysts, the phenomenon seems to have started.
Towards a stabilization of container prices in the medium term?
THE fares for Asia-Europe and Asia-US routes are expected to stabilize at high levels but below the peaks of the Lunar New Year spike. According to Freightos, rates for the Asia-Europe route could stabilize around $4,500 per container, while those for the Asia-US route could remain around $5,200 per container for both coasts.
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