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COT’Hebdo Cereals | The drop in soft wheat prices on the futures markets brings renewed business

THE prix of soft wheat sold 7.5 €/t on Euronext between November 6 and 13, as well as on the CBOT in Chicago, after several consecutive sessions of decline.

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THE semis progress to UNITED STATES but in slightly worse conditions than those of last year. In THE landfills follow the same pace as last year. There production world wheat was revised slightly upwards by theUSDAin its monthly report on supply and global demand. On the side ofEuropean UnionTHE exports Cumulative quantities of soft wheat are down compared to last year. Franco-Algerian tensions and the exclusion of France from the latest calls for tenders from the Algerian Interprofessional Cereals Office (OAIC) in wheat are not unrelated. FranceAgriMer has also revised downwards its forecast for exports of soft wheat to third countries, due to a lack of an Algerian outlet. At United Kingdom finally, the analysts of theAHDB estimate the protein level of wheat lower than that observed last year.

The decline in the futures market was carried over to the walk French physique, and boosted business. These, however, remain limited by supply, while farmers are busy with seedlings and are in no hurry to collect and commercialisation. In feed wheatpurchases were made by animal feed manufacturers of Belgium and The Netherlands on November to March. On the buying interest is present on the close, while on the hinterland of At Pallicefood manufacturers buy at a discount of €5/t compared to the port on the close. In the main ports, a few deals were concluded with the rise in premiums. There flour mill has little shopping presence, with the exception of the area Southwest where a small flow of business is noted.

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Technical unemployment in port grain terminals

On the basin of the Seinethe costs of fret fluvial did not change between November 6 and 13. Nothing new to report compared to last week. The problems of quality of the goods transported are numerous, whether in terms of weevild’ergotof content protein and of specific weight. The activity atexportation remains gloomy. So much so that we always record periods of technical unemployment at some chargers on the ports of Rouen and of . Some storage organisms of their hinterlands have even announced that they will not carry out any loading of grains from November 15, one month before the usual truce of the confectioners end of year.

On the Rhinethe river level drops and the first additional freight costs linked to low water are billed.

Adèle d’Humières and Karine Floquet

But

Seller’s market in the North and dynamic in the South thanks to demand from Southern Europe

The prices of but also gave way to Euronext, losing €5/t this week. Corn prices were also falling in Chicago. The harvest is almost finished in the United States. The USDA revised global production upwards, but the increase applied to consumption was stronger, which led to a downward correction in global stocks. Demand is dynamic for American origins. The French harvest was estimated by Agreste to be up 10% compared to the five-year average, although with contrasting yields depending on the region. Yields could be good or even very good for corn in the . In Lorraine, they could reach 80-85 tonnes/ha and be close to records in Alsace. Be careful, however, of mycotoxins at the end of the harvest. French exports have been noted by FranceAgriMer. In the southern half of the territory, demand is dynamic from Spain and Italy and the market is rather buyer-oriented, including for French food manufacturers. Conversely, the market is selling in the northern half of the country, with few buyers and activity in January-March. Note that French sorghum production will ultimately be less than expected, despite the increase in surface areas. Yields are disappointing, with a 20 to 30% drop compared to last year, and production should get closer to the five-year average.

Feed barley

Sluggish demand for feed barley

L’feed barley hardly fits into formulations and the needs of food manufacturers are already covered. At the port, the market is very calm. Only a few hedging and adjustment operations occur in the South of France, with a little Italian demand for the South-East.

Malting barley

Contrasted price developments

The prices ofmalting barley on the French physical market lost ground between November 6 and 13 in the 2024 harvest but gained some in the 2025 harvest, for all varieties (winter and spring) combined. Shoppers returned to shopping this week. But we must keep in mind that the course levels in France are higher than those currently practiced in Germany, Denmark and Sweden.

Durum wheat

Rare offer of durum wheat

Offers are rare in durum wheatthe corn harvest and the sowing of winter cereals mobilizing most sellers. However, demand is present in Spain, Italy and the domestic market. Prices increased significantly in between November 6 and 13, and more moderately from the Center, in the South-West and in Port-La-Nouvelle.

The editorial staff

To watch

Soft wheat

Do operators respect the minimum prices recommended by the authorities?

Pace and quality of sowing in countries of the northern hemisphere.

Dynamics of European exports, France-Algeria relations?

Orgy

Continued weakness in French and EU exports.

Progress of sowing in France and the countries of the northern hemisphere.

Growing conditions in Australia.

But

European request for French origins.

End of corn harvests in France and the United States.

Corn yields and volumes in France?

Pace of US exports.

Adèle d’Humières

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