From a military point of view, the Kursk salient is of little use. With an area of a few hundred square kilometers, this piece of Russian territory conquered by Ukraine during a surprise cross-border operation contains neither strategic objective nor locality of importance. Its most populous town, Soudja, has only 5,000 inhabitants. Devoid of relief, the surrounding countryside is not a strong defensive position. However, it is a major clash that seems to be brewing in the area.
According to American and Ukrainian officials, Russia has assembled in this region as many as 50,000 troops, including up to 10,000 North Korean fighters, for an operation aimed at pushing the Ukrainians across the border. border in the coming months. Opposite, the Ukrainian forces are estimated at between 20,000 to 30,000 men, including particularly seasoned units, whose experience had enabled the surprise capture of this territory during the summer.
The launch of this operation on August 6 was undoubtedly the big surprise of the summer of 2024 for observers of the conflict. If incursions involving a few hundred men had already been launched on the other side of the Russian border, this was the first time that a force of several thousand Ukrainians had launched there, with the objective of occupy the land. In a few days, the kyiv army seized more than 1,000 square kilometers, galvanizing the morale of the Ukrainian population, and in the process breaking the taboo of the inviolability of the territory of Russia, even though it is a nuclear power.
Missed goals
The assault was also expected to pose a dilemma for Vladimir Putin: should we withdraw forces from his ongoing offensive in Donbass to put out the fire in Kursk, or ignore it, with the political risks that this entails? Alas, Moscow did not take the bait, and was content to stabilize the situation without redeploying troops.
More problematic: Ukrainian soldiers in Donbass are beginning to retreat at an increasing rate, as several units sent to the Kursk region previously held the line there. And contrary to kyiv's hopes, the demonstration of the possibility of taking the fight to Russia does not convince Washington to authorize cruise missile strikes on Russian territory. For many analysts, the Kursk offensive appears more and more like a false good idea.
Since then, the Russian army has reportedly recaptured almost half of the territory initially conquered by Ukraine. From now on, she intends to take over the rest. “The Kursk salient has recently taken on astonishing political importance in the eyes of Moscow and kyiv, notes Finnish military analyst Emil Kastehelmi. Russia has said it will not negotiate until it retakes the area. She certainly wants to be in a better position to negotiate when Donald Trump will take office in January. »
Opposite, the Ukrainians do not seem determined to give up. “It’s strange given the little strategic value of the area, pursued by Emil Kastehelmi. Perhaps they are counting on a future exchange of territory, or they are keen to continue to show that they can fight on Russian territory. But I think they should instead focus on what has an effect on the ground rather than in the information space. » According to him, the quality Ukrainian units deployed in the Kursk salient could offer valuable reinforcement to those trying to stem the Russian advance in the Donbass.
Baptism of fire for the North Koreans
For the Ukrainians, the upcoming fight against Russian and Korean troops promises to be difficult. If the Ukrainians have established defenses, the absence of relief and urban fabric complicates the task, according to several military analysts. Only one main supply route connects Ukrainian territory to the town of Sudja. And for the first time, they face Kim Jong-un's soldiers in combat.
North Korea provides significant material support to Russia. Since the start of the war, Pyongyang has supplied millions of shells to Moscow. Kim Jong-un recently ordered the “mass production” of explosive drones, according to the North Korean news agency KCNA. North Korean-made M1989 Koksan howitzers have also reportedly been observed in transit through Russia, raising fears of their use in Ukraine.
This supply of weapons is now coupled with human support. According to South Korean intelligence, North Korean troops are “already employed in combat operations” in the region. A first test for these fighters present on Russian soil since the end of October as part of a defense agreement signed this summer by Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Although not essential to this counter-offensive, their participation frees up Russian troops for continued assaults in the Donbass region.
Seen from Moscow and Pyongyang, this baptism of fire in a Russian region makes it possible to test the use of these soldiers without combat experience, but also Western reactions – which remain verbal to this day. The result of this “test” will undoubtedly have consequences on the continuation of North Korea's commitment, whether in terms of the number of men deployed, or their sending into combat on Ukrainian territory. An action whose symbolic, geopolitical and legal scope would be even heavier.
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