On the millions of votes that Kamala Harris missed. “We must remain cautious: at this stage, Kamala Harris has lost millions of votes, but the counting is in fact far from over. This is particularly the case in the very democratic states of the West Coast. There remain 44% of the ballots to be counted in California, 29% in Washington State, 26% in Oregon… This represents millions of votes, which will be overwhelmingly Democratic and will therefore improve Kamala Harris’ final level. The gap in votes with Donald Trump and his decline compared to Joe Biden in 2020 will therefore be more limited than it seems at this time. However, there is indeed a Democratic decline compared to 2020. It is concentrated in certain categories of the electorate: Latinos (52% voted Democratic, − 13 points compared to 2020) and those under 25 years old (54%, − 11), in particular. In the other categories, the decline is more limited, between 2 and 4 points in general.”
On the Trumpist “tidal wave”. “I find that the talk of making this election a tidal wave or a wave is very exaggerated. When the count is complete, Donald Trump should have a national lead of 0.5 to 1.5 points over Kamala Harris – less than Joe Biden’s 4.5 point lead in 2020. If we focus on the swing states, the most likely is that he will obtain 312 electoral votes, compared to 306 for Joe Biden four years ago, which is very close. And his advance in the swing states is certainly generally stronger than that of his 2020 Democratic opponent, but it remains quite tight: 49.8% against 48.3% in Michigan, 49.6% against 48.8% in Wisconsin, 50.4% against 48.5% in Pennsylvania, 50.7% against 48.5% in Georgia… It’s a clear, clear victory, but I don’t really see how we can qualify this election as a “tidal wave”especially if we remember that four years ago, the media discourse around Joe Biden’s victory was that of an incredibly close vote. »
Canada
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