The former Republican president won over frustrated voters by promising them that his economic populism and conservative culture, which makes America proud, would improve their lives. He will be put to the test immediately, however, and there is reason to believe that his plans for mass expulsions and sweeping tariffs could harm the very people who helped him win.
Nevertheless, he is expected to enter the White House on January 20, 2025, in a position of undisputed strength. With the vote count not yet complete, he could become the first Republican in twenty years to win the popular vote.
The results left Democrats facing an urgent and immediate situation, with no obvious leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan to rebuild as an emboldened Trump prepares to take back Washington.
Here are some key points to remember.
With modest changes, Trump undermines Democrats' coalition
Black voters – men and women – have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party, and in recent years Latinos and younger voters have joined them.
All three groups still prefer Democrat Kamala Harris. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 115,000 voters nationwide, suggests Mr. Trump has made significant gains.
Voters under 30 make up a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Ms. Harris. This compares to around 6 in 10 people who supported Biden in 2020. Just over 4 in 10 young voters chose Trump, compared to around a third in 2020.
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At the same time, Black and Latino voters appear slightly less likely to support Ms. Harris than they were to support Mr. Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.
About 8 in 10 black voters supported Ms. Harris, compared to about 9 in 10 for Ms. Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Ms. Harris, but that figure is down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 voters who supported Ms. Biden in 2020. Trump's support among these groups appears to have increased slightly from 2020 Collectively, these small gains have produced a huge result.
Trump's focus on immigration, economy and culture has paid off
Despite all the theatrics, name-calling and insults, Donald Trump ended up winning over voters by promising to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants to the southern border and “make it great again.” to America.”
He also appealed to religious voters in both parties by relying on Democrats' support for the transgender community.
Overall, nearly half of Mr. Trump's voters said inflation was the main factor influencing their voting decision. According to AP VoteCast, about as many say the same thing about the situation at the border between the United States and Mexico.
He glossed over the fact that the economy is robust by many conventional indicators – inflation is largely under control and wages are rising – while the number of border crossings has fallen dramatically. He ignored the facts and, through repetition, convinced the voters.
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He also convinced them by promising the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history, although he did not explain how such an operation would work. Finally, he threatens to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other U.S. adversaries, which economists say could cause prices to rise dramatically for the average American.
Ultimately, Mr. Trump's victory may have as much to do with the fundamental challenges that Ms. Harris has faced all along. Faced with deep voter frustration with the direction of the country – with Mr. Biden's approval rating at an all-time low – she never distanced herself from her party's sitting president. Although Trump has been the central figure in American politics for nine years now, he has convinced voters that he represents change.
Trump will lead a deeply divided nation
Mr. Trump will inherit a nation whose political and cultural fissures are deepening and whose electorate is uneasy.
When asked what most influenced their vote, about half of voters cited the future of democracy. This percentage is higher than that of people who answered the same way about inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And this trend is found in both major parties: About two-thirds of Ms. Harris' voters and about a third of Trump's voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their vote.
This is not surprising given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign.
Mr Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat in 2020 and watched as his supporters ransacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden's victory. Two days before Election Day, Mr. Trump even said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after repeatedly promising to punish his political enemies.
Late in the campaign, Ms. Harris joined other critics — including some of Mr. Trump’s former White House chiefs of staff — in calling the former president a “fascist.” Mr. Trump, meanwhile, called Ms. Harris a “fascist” and a “communist.”
Donald Trump's criminal past is not an issue for many voters
The incomplete results show that Donald Trump's criminal convictions, other pending indictments and concerns over his most inflammatory rhetoric simply weren't enough to stop tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.
According to AP VoteCast, just over half of voters said Ms. Harris had the moral character to be president, compared with about 4 in 10 for Mr. Trump. It's entirely possible, as Mr. Trump said numerous times during his campaign, that his run-ins with the law actually helped him.
Check out all the news about this historic election
As things stand, Mr. Trump may never be convicted in a New York business fraud case, in which he was convicted of 34 crimes. For now, his sentence is scheduled for the end of the month.
A federal indictment in Florida has already been dismissed, sparing him a trial over whether he violated the U.S. National Security Secrets Protection Act. He has made clear he will use his power as president to bring down federal charges against him for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. That would leave pending a racketeering case in Georgia against Mr. Trump and others accused of trying to distort the outcome of the 2020 election.
Abortion issues
It was the first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended women's national right to terminate pregnancies. It was also the first time a Republican presidential candidate openly courted men by taking a hypermasculine approach.
But the resulting “gender gap” wasn’t enough to sink Trump.”
About half of women supported Ms. Harris, while half of men went for Mr. Trump, according to AP VoteCast. This appears to largely match Biden and Trump's 2020 shares.
Democrats face a leadership crisis and an urgent need to regroup
Just a few months ago, Ms. Harris generated incredible enthusiasm within the party. She raised over a billion dollars, seemingly overnight. She dominated her debate with Trump. She filled arenas. And a few days ago, she drew a massive crowd to the Ellipse and the National Mall.
But in the end, it wasn't enough.
Meanwhile, Republicans took control of the Senate, ousting veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and putting several other Democratic lawmakers on the brink of defeat. These results will give Donald Trump a considerable advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Their only hope is to win a majority in the House of Representatives, made up mostly of key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from a given Wednesday.
Either way, the results shrink the Democrats' geographic footprint and, with Mr. Brown's defeat, diminish the kind of working-class voice that can counter Mr. Trump's appeal.
Mr. Trump has already succeeded in portraying Democrats as culturally out of touch with middle America. Today, Democrats must ask themselves how to reconnect with the parts of the country and the segments of the electorate that have rejected them.
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