First US presidential election results – live from Washington DC

All the ballots have not yet been counted, but there would be 246 electors for Donald Trump, 270 are needed to be elected, and 187 for Kamala Harris, who is far behind. Is this result, which marks the likely next re-election of Donald Trump, surprising?

The almost certain election of Donald Trump

Donald Trump's electoral breakthrough is clear. He is approaching the 270 voters needed to win a second term, and Harris appears to be struggling, particularly in key states. It appears that Donald Trump benefits from massive electoral support, including from minorities, despite the multiple scandals in which he is involved and the divisive memories of his first presidency. For Donald Abelson« it's not a big surprise. Kamala Harris fails to carry key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It becomes, in fact, impossible for her to beat Trump. »

A victory acquired thanks to popular votes?

Pour Rick MacArthurpresident of Harper’s Magazinethe persistent anger of the working classes towards the neoliberal policies of past decades, notably those of Bill Clinton, which left industrial regions devastated, is the cause of Donald Trump's success. “The notorious Rust Belt in the key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania has been completely stripped of its industry, stable jobs and self-esteem for 30 years. People are furious. It's not that surprising that they have the far-fetched idea that a guy like Donald Trump can take care of them. But he doesn't care about anyone.”

The populist and anti-elite position defended by the Republican candidate makes him the symbol of this anger. Furthermore, for Donald AbelsonKamala Harris, who did not go through a primary, had difficulty distinguishing herself from Joe Biden, of whom she was vice-president. For many Democrats, it was imposed on them, creating divisions within the electorate and weakening their candidacy.

Democrats struggle to respond to the social divide

The polarization of the American political spectrum as well as the evolution of the image of Kamala Harris's party is the reason for her defeat and the disaffection of the popular and working classes to the donkey party. This is what we are told Rick Mac Arthur : “The Democratic Party has become the party of the rich, of Wall Street, of the educated. There is a horrendous gap between rich and poor, between educated and not very well educated. There are no longer any unions to act as safeguards. We are at 7%… of union members in the private sector, it is tiny compared to what it was in the 60s and 70s. The poor, the former workers who worked in the factories, feel that they have no alternative to Trump.“

What foreign policy?

On a global scale, the election of Donald Trump is worrying. For Donald Abelsonhis accession to the presidency could lead to a potential disengagement of American support for Ukraine and announced unwavering support for Israel and the Netanyahu government in the Middle East. Trump's political practice is moving away from a multilateral vision of international relations in favor of direct balance of power that best benefits American interests.

Pour Catherine Mulberryhis foreign policy will evolve in his practice, in particular because of the composition of his cabinet and his teams: “Unlike his previous presidency, it must be remembered that he is not surrounded by people who could temper his desires on the international scene or on the domestic scene, whether in matters of immigration or bilateral relations. He also faces a world that has changed, with the war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán also in Europe.” However, Trump's reliance on controversial advisers, such as his prospective vice president JD Vance, is raising fears about international stability.