will US aid to Ukraine be at risk if Donald Trump wins?

“Twenty-four hours.” This is the time Donald Trump is giving himself to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, if by chance he wins the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5. Since he formulated this challenge during a meeting with voters on CNN in May 2023, the former head of state has repeatedly repeated that his “proximity” with Vladimir Putin will allow him to resolve the problem from the period transition, before the inauguration ceremony of January 20, 2025. It does not matter that the Ukrainian government refuses any transfer of territory and that the rare comments, on the Russian side, cast doubt on the feasibility of this “precise plan”. “The Ukrainian crisis cannot be resolved in one day,” Vassily Nebenzia, Russian ambassador to the UN, commented on July 2.

Confidences to Orbán

Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister whom Trump admires so much, believes he knows how his “friend” will go about it: “He will not give a penny in the war between Ukraine and Russia. This is why the war will end. » Orbán would have gleaned these confidences during a meeting in early March with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, in Florida: “If the Americans do not give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, the war is over. »

Would a re-elected Trump be able to turn off the tap of military aid to Ukraine? To the envelope of 60 billion dollars approved last April is added 20 billion released by the Biden administration on Russian assets frozen in the United States, a welcome windfall for kyiv, worried about a sudden deterioration in relations with Washington in the event of a Republican victory.

L'influence d'Andrzej Duda

Despite his declared hostility towards Ukraine and its president Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he again recently accused of being “responsible for the war”, despite his isolationist speeches, there is no indication that Donald Trump is changing as a gravedigger of the Ukrainian resistance.

As a great pragmatist concerned about his mark in history, the Republican candidate remains sensitive to persuasive arguments. On April 17, Polish President Andrzej Duda, of the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, was granted dinner with the tribune of Maga (Make America Great Again) at Trump Tower, on Fifth Avenue in New York. Duda's goal? Convince Trump not to give up on Ukraine, pointing out that perhaps he didn't want to go down in history as the American president associated with Ukraine's defeat. The same evening, Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social network: “As everyone knows, the survival and strength of Ukraine should matter more to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us! Get moving, Europe! »

Duda's critics note that his influence should not be overestimated and that his presidential term expires in May 2025. But the main thing remains: Donald Trump's ego remains a powerful lever on which Ukraine relies and its allies.