Anne Applebaum, 2021, at the Prado Museum in Madrid.Image: imago-images.de
Anne Applebaum outlines in an essay how the democratic West should respond to the growing threat from Russia. And it warns of immense costs.
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“We must win this war”
Anne Applebaum is an award-winning historian, journalist and best-selling author. Born in the United States, she celebrated her 60th birthday in July. She lives mainly in Poland, her husband’s country of origin where he is Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Anne Applebaum has also held Polish nationality for many years and says she feels European on political issues such as the war in Ukraine.
Which brings us back to the subject.
The historian recently published an article in the American magazine The Atlantic. Its title:
“This is the only way to end the war in Ukraine”
Watson summarizes the historian’s main conclusions and most relevant justifications.
How Ukraine can defeat Russia
Anne Applebaum has visited and traveled Ukraine several times. She went there after the Russian occupation of the Crimean peninsula, and also after the 2022 invasion.
Anne Applebaum has numerous contacts in the country at war.Image: watson
In fact, the Ukrainians’ will to win remained intact, explains the historian. She puts forward several reasons linked to the success of asymmetric warfare.
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Ukraine, a country without a large navy, defeated the Russian Black Sea Fleet thanks to its innovative capacity. The best engineers would be busy around the clock developing and testing unmanned vessels, called marine drones:
“Packed with explosives and guided by the world’s most advanced remote navigation technology, these new weapons could even change the way all maritime wars are fought in the future.”
Ukrainian naval drones are merciless
Video: watson
But Ukraine’s talent for asymmetric warfare is not limited to the aquatic element. Applebaum reports that during a “recent trip” to Ukraine, she was able to visit a secret development team. She added that work was underway there to decisively change the course of the war:
“In this special installation there were no machines, no engines, no warheads, just a room full of screens. The men and women sitting in front of the screens were dressed like civilians, but in reality they were soldiers, members of a special army unit created to use experimental communications technology in combination with experimental drones. Both are developed by Ukrainians for Ukraine.”
In this context, the historian refers to a phenomenon that can be described as a commitment of civil society to the defense of Ukraine. Applebaum writes that it is a “grassroots” movement (ed. “popular movement”). Many men and women have engaged in both military and civilian projects, for example in the development of new technologies.
What is particular is that the exchange and coordination with other groups is done directly, with those responsible not operating through the official army chain of command.
This promotes efficiency and resistance. And Russia will never be able to destroy “the decision-making center of Ukraine,” because this center does not make all the decisions.
She is aware that her report on the Ukrainian war effort stands out dramatically from “other, darker stories.” She notes:
“The Russian president is willing to accept heavy losses in lives and equipment, as few other countries would do. And yet the Ukrainians continue to believe they can win – if only their American and European allies would let them.”
This is why Ukraine needs even greater military support from the West.
“The democratic world is more prosperous and more dynamic than the autocratic world. To keep it that way, Ukraine and its Western allies must convince Russia to stop fighting. We must win the war.”
Why a Russian victory would cost us dearly
Anne Applebaum with a whisk:
“Repeated attacks on civilians are no accident; it’s a tactic. Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to deprive Ukrainians of heat and light, demoralize both the people and the government and perhaps provoke a new exodus of refugees that will shake up European politics.”
What Western officials, US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the lead, but also the Federal Council are not saying: if Ukraine definitively loses the war, the costs – military, economic and political – for the States The United States and its allies in Europe will likely increase immensely.
The historian explains:
This will be felt in Venezuela, where Putin’s aggressive defiance certainly helped keep his ally Nicolás Maduro in power despite a resounding electoral defeat.
This will be felt in Africa, where Russian mercenaries now support a series of hideous regimes.
And of course, Ukraine’s neighbors will also pay the price for this failure.”
She strongly doubts that Germany and France, not to mention Poland, are prepared for the consequences of a defeated Ukraine, the collapse of the Ukrainian state, anarchy or the rule of the Russian mafia on the threshold eastern part of the European Union, as well as the violence and crime that would result from it.
The big problem behind Putin’s red lines
Anne Applebaum explains that the red lines no longer exist except in our heads. Because each of them has already been crossed.
- Ukraine uses drones to attack targets inside Russia, including oil refineries, oil and gas export facilities, and air bases.
- Long-range Ukrainian drones have already reportedly struck several large munitions depots.
- Ukraine has occupied part of Russian territory in the Kursk region since August.
Russia accepted everything. The threats of (nuclear) consequences brandished by representatives of the Kremlin did not materialize.
The fact that imaginary red lines prevent rapid delivery and release of important weapons systems is not the biggest problem, however, Applebaum emphasizes. Ukraine cannot drive out the Russian invaders with isolated miraculous weapons. But:
“Since the beginning of this war, we could not imagine that the Ukrainians could defeat Russia, and that is why we did not try to help those who were trying to do just that”
Instead of focusing on a victory, many Americans and Europeans continue to dream of a magical “negotiated solution.” However, the real obstacle to the negotiations would not be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but rather Putin.
According to the historian, it is the Russians who must be convinced to stop the fighting. The war will only end when the Russians run out of resources – and their resources are not infinite – or when they understand that Ukraine’s allies are serious. Ukraine will not surrender and Russia cannot win.
The sooner Western leaders understand this, the better it will be for everyone.
Translated and adapted by Chiara Lecca
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