This year, “the opposition forces, traditionally divided, managed to forge an unprecedented united front” against the ruling party, underlines analyst Gela Vasadze, of the Center for Strategic Analysis on Georgia.
Among the quartet of parties concerned, the United National Movement of the imprisoned ex-president Mikheïl Saakashvili, the bête noire of Mr. Ivanishvili.
Their program notably provides for vast electoral, judicial and police reforms.
– “Between war and peace” –
The Georgian Dream, in power since 2012, is accused by its opponents of having allowed itself to be drawn into a pro-Russian authoritarian spiral and of distancing Georgia from the EU and NATO, which it also aims to join.
Some of its leaders are very critical of the West, with Bidzina Ivanishvili having called it a “global war party”, which would treat Georgia, its victim, as “cannon fodder”.
As the legislative elections approached, he hammered home this argument: “on October 26, we will have to save the country again and choose between slavery and freedom, submission to foreign powers and sovereignty, war and peace.” .
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, one of his close friends, said he was confident that “the majority of Georgians will vote for the Georgian Dream, in order to prevent the ‘Ukrainization'” of their country.
In this context, the government says it wants to obtain a large majority in Parliament to ban pro-Western opposition parties.
– “Test crucial” –
Georgia was rocked in May by massive protests against a law on “foreign influence”, criticized in the West and inspired by Russian legislation on “foreign agents” used to suppress dissident voices.
Brussels subsequently froze Georgia’s accession process to the EU and the United States imposed sanctions on Georgian officials accused of having authorized a “brutal repression” of demonstrators.
Tbilisi responded by threatening to “review” its diplomatic relations with Washington.
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, recently expressed concern about Georgia’s “slide” “towards authoritarianism”, describing the vote as a “crucial test”, at a time when Westerners fear a rapprochement with Russia, a historic player in the Caucasus and a country where Mr. Ivanishvili made his fortune after the fall of the USSR.
A sign of the importance of the issue, the Kremlin on Tuesday accused the West of “undisguised” interference in the elections in this former Soviet republic.
Latest cause of tensions between Brussels and Tbilisi: the promulgation at the beginning of October of a law restricting the rights of LGBT+ minorities.
Despite the uncertainty, Tina Bokoutchava, the head of the United National Movement party, told AFP she was convinced that Georgians “will defend the country’s European destiny, democracy”.
“A ruling party that threatens to ban opposition parties is doomed,” she said.
“But if the ruling party tries to remain in power regardless of the election result, there is a risk of post-election unrest,” warns expert Gela Vasadze.
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