The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently revised its forecasts for global oil demand for the years 2024 and 2025. According to the latest monthly report published on Monday, OPEC anticipates more moderate growth than previously estimated. This revision reflects adjustments based on economic data and current energy market trends.
The report said global oil consumption is expected to average 104.1 million barrels per day in 2024, a slight increase from 102.2 million barrels per day recorded in 2023. For 2025, the forecast is at 105.7 million barrels per day. These figures show a downward revision compared to OPEC’s previous forecasts, which forecast 104.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and 105.9 million in 2025.
Factors influencing forecast revision
OPEC explained that the adjustment to its forecasts is mainly due to more conservative actual economic data and slightly lower forecasts for some regions of the world. Despite this revision, the organization believes that demand for oil will continue to grow significantly. In 2024, demand is expected to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day, which remains above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day observed before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Differentiation between OECD and non-member countries
OPEC’s analysis also distinguishes demand between member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and those that are non-members. Demand from non-OECD countries is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 compared to 2023, while that from OECD countries will only increase by 0.1 million barrels per day, mainly from the Americas.
Outlook for 2025 and beyond
For the year 2025, OPEC forecasts growth in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels per day, a downward revision compared to previous forecasts. The organization emphasizes that demand from non-OECD countries, notably China, other countries in Asia, the Middle East and India, will be the main driver of this growth.
Environmental impact and long-term outlook
In 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic, global oil consumption averaged around 100 million barrels per day. Oil, alongside coal and natural gas, is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for increasing global temperatures. Last month, OPEC said oil demand was expected to continue growing until 2050, marking a contrast with forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The OECD Energy Agency, for its part, predicts a peak in demand for all fossil fuels, including oil, gas and coal, in the coming years. This projection is supported by the rise of cleaner energy and electric mobility, which are expected to gradually replace traditional energy sources.
Related News :