American presidential election and natural disasters: it’s on the ground that it counts | US elections 2024

Hurricane Milton made a spectacular appearance in the American presidential campaign just two weeks after another hurricane (Helene) caused considerable damage.

Some Republicans blame Democrats, whether for the management of these natural disasters or even for their existence. A lot of misinformation about this is circulating on social media. In 2012, the good management of Hurricane Sandy allowed the Obama administration to score points just before the election. We will see in November if this scenario will repeat itself or if the Biden administration will lose its feathers.

Meanwhile, beyond Florida, in a handful of key states ranging from Georgia to Michigan to Nevada, thousands of volunteers are still trying to convince the undecided. The identity of the next tenant of the White House could well be in their hands.

What it changes : some speak of a trench battle for a few thousand votes. This fight will probably not be won with big speeches and rallies, but through a multitude of small efforts. It’s about reaching voters one by one, convincing them to vote. And in this battle, the two camps adopted very distinct strategies.

As in 2016, the Democrats are relying on databases – which they claim to be precise – and on an army of well-motivated volunteers. The efforts deployed in Pennsylvania and North Carolina illustrate one part of their tactic: targeting Democratic supporters in regions that predominantly support Donald Trump. The goal is not to reverse the trend in a county, but to ensure that these supporters will vote even if they are in the minority in their part of the country.

Democrats also address women ordinary who have suffered difficulties related to access to abortion. The idea, being tested in Wisconsin in particular, consists of encouraging them to talk about their experience to reach their loved ones and encourage them to vote. Targeted advertisements, online or on local radio, also target specific segments of the electorate, for example Latinos.

Under Donald Trump, Republicans developed another version of ground gamethe American expression designating operations intended to mobilize the electorate. Part of the efforts are aimed at finding irregular voters, that is, men and women who like Donald Trump, but for whom voting is not a priority. An app (10xVotes) allows volunteers to find them in their own neighborhood.

Very specific sections of the electorate, who seem to increasingly like the style and ideas of the ex-president, are also targeted. Think about African-American men who live in Detroit, for example, or young Latinos in Arizona.

Yes, but Some Republicans consider it risky that their party is striving to court new voters to the point of paying less attention to moderate Republicans who are uncomfortable with certain positions of their standard-bearer. Many also deplore the fact that external activist groups (and not the party) are responsible for mobilizing these voters.

The Democrats have fears, too. Many remember the confidence displayed by Hillary Clinton’s entourage in 2016, relying in particular on detailed data and an army of volunteers. Kamala Harris’ campaign may have millions of dollars to buy advertising and encourage mobilization, but few rallies or arguments seem able to influence a very tight race for weeks now.

Meanwhile, on the side states hit by hurricanes, election officials are getting busy. In addition to the task of repairing roads and reestablishing communications, there is the task of ensuring the smooth running of the vote. And in the case of voters, they must also find the time to go vote or even register on the electoral roll.

One of the difficulties concerns advance voting delivered by mail, which is seriously disrupted. In North Carolina, for example, more than 40,000 early ballots from disaster areas are missing. In a state where the winner did not have a 75,000 vote lead in 2020, this is no small thing.