I can’t pretend to be neutral – that’s not the job of a columnist anyway – the man repels me.
Mr. Trump is in the news in part because he knows how to generate news with his lies and malicious accusations. But what does all this concern us? Don’t we have enough of our own problems to deal with? Health, education, immigration, the astronomical deficits of Quebec and Canada come to mind. Should we additionally feel stress about other people’s problems?
I would like to answer no, but the reality is quite different. The results of the presidential election, especially if Trump wins, which remains more than possible (I believe he will win) despite the good performance of Kamala Harris, will have a direct impact on Canada. Even if we have very little to say in the matter, apart from diplomatic representations which do not weigh very heavily in the Trumpian balance.
We cannot be neighbors with the most powerful country in the world without it affecting us directly or indirectly. Nearly 80% of our exports go to our immediate neighbors. As they say, when the United States gets a cold, Canada ends up with a bad case of pneumonia.
And if Trump wins, we are likely to end up with an even worse health record. Some of his electoral commitments are aimed directly at us.
Trump boasts on every platform that he wants to carry out the largest program of expulsions of illegal immigrants in the history of the United States. They would be 11 million, according to reliable sources and not the delusions of the ex-president who places this figure at 22 million, most of whom have been installed and integrated with Uncle Sam for years. Among these are half a million Haitian immigrants welcomed under a U.S. government temporary residency program.
If they feel threatened with deportation, people from this community could turn to Canada as a host country. It was the end of a similar temporary immigration program that had made Roxham Road popular at the time.
Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of migrants could end up at our borders seeking asylum if Donald Trump’s threat of expulsion ever becomes a reality.
What could we do? Repatriate them to their country of origin instead of leaving the dirty work to the Americans? Welcome them? We would be stuck with a nice migratory hot potato. The most important in our history. In other words, we saw nothing if Trump, once elected, but his threat in execution.
But there is more. Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on all countries that do business with the United States, which could reach 20% and 60% for China. The tripartite free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States concluded in 2020 barely protects us. It expires in 2026. We can already say that it is in danger, even without the election of the Republicans. The Democrats also have a protectionist streak. Kamala Harris voted against this new free trade agreement and has already said in an interview that she would not have voted in favor of NAFTA. But Trump, predictably, will want to renegotiate the new deal. To his only advantage is his style.
According to a Scotiabank study, tariffs of just 10% could worsen inflation and reduce economic activity by 3.6% in Canada. We are at risk of seeing GDP decline.
Customs tariffs, a source of revenue for the American government according to Trump who has no understanding of how the system works because it is a disguised tax on consumers, will also have an effect in Canada. Products imported from the United States but produced abroad – China comes to mind – will cost more. Another significant side effect is that the value of the Canadian dollar could suffer from this tax on our exports.
Another possible consequence of the election of Donald Trump is the exit of the United States from NATO, which would place Canada in an untenable position as the sole North American member of the alliance.
That’s not all. If Trump lowers corporate tax rates, which he has promised to do, Canada will have to follow if it does not want to experience outsourcing. He also promises to reduce environmental regulations, which could also convince large companies to set up operations in the south. The Republican program promises a reduction in budgets devoted to the environment: we would be the first to suffer, after the Americans.
Let’s do a little political fiction. Let’s imagine for a moment that Trump becomes President of the United States again and that Pierre Poilievre is elected Prime Minister of Canada with a large majority. Poilievre is not a mini-Trump – he is not rich or devious enough for that – but he could well be inspired by what would have made the Republican electoral success to impose on Canada policies much more to the right than those to which we are accustomed. The two men would undoubtedly have connections.
The American elections concern us all. To think otherwise indicates a disconnect with reality. Let’s be vigilant.
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