The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its near-term energy outlook, revealing that domestic production is expected to decline slightly in 2024, while consumption is expected to reach a record high. EIA projections indicate that dry gas production will fall from the peak of 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 103.5 bcfd in 2024, marking the first decline in production since the pandemic. COVID-19 disrupted demand in 2020. This expected reduction in production is attributed to several producers reducing drilling activities due to the lowest average monthly spot prices at the Henry Hub benchmark since March, which was at its lowest level in 32 years.
In contrast, national gas consumption is expected to increase from 89.1 bcfd in 2023 to 90.1 bcfd in 2024, continuing an upward trend for the fourth consecutive year, a streak not seen since 2016. The EIA’s latest figures for 2024 are an upward revision from their September forecast, which estimated supply at 103.4 bcfd and consumption at 89.9 bcfd.
For 2025, the EIA forecasts a rebound in production to 104.6 bcfd, with consumption expected to return to the 2023 level of 89.1 bcfd. Additionally, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to increase from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2023 to 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and then to 13.8 bcfd in 2025.
Coal production is also expected to see a significant decline, with the EIA forecasting a fall from 577.5 million short tons in 2023 to 510.0 million tons in 2024, which would be the lowest level since 1964. The trend The decline is expected to continue in 2025, with production estimated at 484.6 million tonnes, reaching a level that has not been seen since 1963. This decline is largely due to the replacement of coal-fired power plants with coal-fired sources. gas and renewable energy.
Additionally, the EIA expects carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels to decrease from 4.791 billion metric tons in 2023 to 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024, due to the decrease of the use of oil and coal. However, emissions are expected to increase slightly to 4.794 billion metric tons in 2025 due to an increase in the use of oil and coal. These projections compare to the 4.584 billion metric tons of carbon emissions recorded in 2020, which was the lowest level since 1983, during the pandemic-induced slowdown in energy demand.
Reuters contributed to this article.
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