Donald Trump and Kamala Harris during their televised debate on September 10.Keystone
The Swiss think tank Foraus gives its prediction on the next American elections.
If Donald Trump is elected President of the United States for a second time on November 5, the consequences will be felt as far away as Switzerland, according to the Foraus think tank. He calls on the government to create a task force to prepare as best as possible. Bern says it is observing the situation “very closely”.
The think tank specializing in foreign policy sees risks in three areas: trade, finance and security.
“The generalized customs duties of 10% that the Republican candidate has already announced will impact Swiss exports. They will also suffer from the measures that the EU takes in response”
Foraus.
At the bilateral level, discussions for a free trade agreement with the United States, initiated during Donald Trump’s first term between 2017 and 2021, could be relaunched. But we must expect requirements of Washington, Bern’s second trading partnerin sensitive areas.
Difficult choices
A second term for the New Yorker would also bring insecurity in the financial area. Deregulation on Wall Street and increased controls on international investments risk putting Switzerland, which must manage the post-Credit Suisse era, in a delicate position.
From a security point of view, instability risks increasing internationally, with a withdrawal of the United States from NATO not being excluded:
In this case, Switzerland, which is not a member but indirectly depends on the organization, would have to make difficult choices to maintain collaboration with its partners without affecting its neutrality.
The Confederation must therefore create an interdepartmental task force to assess possible scenarios and prepare for them, believe the think tank’s experts. It must also already speak with important partners such as the EU to agree on possible measures to be taken and prepare public opinion on sensitive subjects which risk coming back to the table, such as Swiss neutrality.
Consequences also with Harris
Bern should not feel relieved if Kamala Harris is elected, Foraus warns:
His government would be more in line with that of Joe Biden and the decisions would be more predictable
But it could still leave its mark on Bern, as was the case with the end of banking secrecy under Barack Obama, for example. There is therefore every interest in taking care of relations with the future American government as soon as possible.
Switzerland will continue to work closely with the new American administration, regardless of the outcome of the presidential electionindicates Pierre-Alain Eltschinger, spokesperson for the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, to Keystone-ATS. The American campaign is being followed “very closely” both from Washington and from Bern, he assures.
The possible consequences of the presidency of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, however, remain very difficult to determine, because it involves a high degree of speculation, indicates Françoise Tschanz, spokesperson for the Federal Department of Economic Affairs. (sda/ats)
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