The Arctic in flames? Devastating fires predicted by 2100!

The Arctic: an icy, peaceful and unchanging landscape; This is, in any case, the perception we currently have of it. However, this region, located at the North Pole of our planet, could soon become the scene of devastating fires. An international study published on September 24 in Nature Communications reveals to us a chilling scenario: by the end of the century, the subarctic and arctic regions could experience a spectacular increase in forest firesradically disrupting these fragile ecosystems.

A complex mechanism revealed by science

The climatologists used the Community Earth System Model, a complex set of computer simulations that reproduces the functioning of our planet, integrating the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, ice, land and biogeochemical cycles. Thanks to this model, one of the most sophisticated in existence todaythey were able to decipher this worrying phenomenon.

By simulating the interactions between global warming, the melting of permafrost (soil or rock that remains permanently frozen for at least two consecutive years), soil humidity and the outbreak of fires, they were able to project the evolution of the situation until 2100. To distinguish the impact of human activities from natural climate fluctuations, the team screened 50 simulations ranging from 1850 to 2100by imagining a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions would continue to grow.

In-Won Kim, a researcher at the IBS Climate Physics Center in South Korea, summarizes the study’s findings: “In the second half of this century, our simulations show a sudden shift from almost no fires to very intense fires in just a few years.” How is this possible? This rapid shift can be explained by a chain of cascading reactions, triggered by the anthropogenic thawing of permafrost.

A vicious climatic circle

The scenario envisaged by the researchers highlights a worrying sequence of events. The thawing of permafrost, amplified by greenhouse gas emissions, would cause a sudden drop in soil humidity in northern regions. This phenomenon would in turn cause surface warming and atmospheric drying, creating ideal conditions for the birth and spread of forest fires. The diagram below perfectly illustrates this dynamic.

Since bad news rarely comes alone, there are two factors that could make this situation worse. On the one hand, the increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) could stimulate vegetation growth in these areas, providing more fuel for potential fires. On the other hand, forest fires themselves release enormous amounts of CO₂thus feeding a vicious cycle of warming and thawing of permafrost. More bad news, the last one this time: the researchers did not include this last aspect in their modeling. Which suggests that the reality could be even worse than current projections.

• A study predicts a sharp increase in Arctic fires by the end of the century, caused mainly by global warming.
• Thawing of permafrost and drying of soils would create conditions conducive to forest fires.
• This vicious circle of fires releasing CO₂accelerating warming, could worsen the situation more quickly than expected.

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