AWith an average annual olive oil consumption of 4 liters per person, Morocco ranks at the top of the Arab countries in this area. However, due to the drought which is severely hitting production, olive oil is on the way to becoming a luxury product. This essential commodity in the daily life of Moroccans is now sold at increasingly high prices, making it inaccessible for many families.
With the approach of the olive harvest season, scheduled between October and December, speculation around the sale prices of olive oil is rife. On social networks, exchanges mention prices oscillating between 120 and 170 dirhams, levels never reached before. But what is it really? Following a prolonged drought, sector professionals expect yields significantly lower than normal. This situation has the direct consequence of increasing pressure on olive oil prices.
“This is the sixth consecutive year of drought, which has led to the depletion of all our water resources, whether groundwater or surface water. Morocco is facing an unprecedented situation of water stress. The drought of the 1980s is well behind us, because this time we are not only experiencing a lack of water, but also extreme heat never before seen. All of these factors weigh heavily on olive oil production. We expect a significant drop in production, but it is still early to give a precise estimate. Last year’s harvest was low, and this year it will be even more so,” underlines Rachid Benali, president of the Moroccan Interprofessional Olive Federation (Interprolive).
Refuting the prices mentioned, particularly on the web, the president of Interprolive insists on the fact that it is premature to make estimates on this subject. “At the moment, talking about prices would be premature because production is still far away. Mentioning a price of 120 DH or 150 DH is not realistic. At this stage, we must not make estimates so as not to mislead the consumer. We will have more visibility by the end of October,” he specifies. Along the same lines, Benali notes that in addition to the volume of production and supply and demand, prices are also influenced by the international market. “It is appropriate to note that we are connected to neighboring markets such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Tunisia, all major producers of olive oil. A reference price will be set shortly, and we will follow this trend. Furthermore, if national production ever proves insufficient, we will be forced to import from these countries,” indicates our interlocutor.
What about the export record?
While olive oil is becoming increasingly rare in Morocco, data from the Foreign Exchange Office show that during the first half of 2024, the Kingdom exported 8,498 tonnes of olive oil. raw and refined olives, compared to 4,859 tonnes between January and June 2023. How can we explain this paradox?
According to Rachid Benali, these exports were limited to specific categories of olive oil. And note that this has no influence on the prices practiced at the local level, since these exports only represent a small part of national production. “Exports have indeed increased compared to the previous year, but how much does this represent of national production? Around 8,500 tonnes compared to a production of around 100,000 tonnes, or less than 10% of national production. Exporting 10% of production therefore does not have a significant impact on local prices. What have we exported? First, very high-end products, such as extra virgin olive oil, packaged or not, under contracts signed with Morocco Foodex or the Agency for Agricultural Development (ADA). Then, an oil of very poor quality, inedible, intended for industrial processing abroad, because this is not done locally,” he concludes.
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