Motorists will not complain. At gas stations across France, fuel prices continue to fall. During the week ending Friday, September 13, a liter of diesel fell on average below 1.60 euros, according to data from the Ministry of Ecological Transition. This is a first since January 2022, that is, before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, which had made supplies more expensive.
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For diesel regulars, still the majority in France, the reading now shows 1.59 euros per liter, twelve cents less than at the beginning of the summer, and around thirty cents less than in September 2023. The trend is also observed, to a lesser extent, for a liter of gasoline. At the September 13 count, the average price of unleaded 95 stood at 1.72 euros, a decrease of around 13 cents compared to the beginning of July.
“Prices at the pump are still relatively high”qualifies Olivier Gantois, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries (UFIP). Diesel, for example, sold for less than 1.50 euros on average in 2019. In any case, “Motorists need their cars equally whether prices are up or down, he recalls. There is therefore no elasticity in their demand for fuel with respect to prices.”.
For all types of fuel, taxation accounts for a significant portion of prices. The various taxes (on added value and on the consumption of energy products) alone constitute 55% of the price displayed on September 13 for diesel, and nearly 57% for unleaded 95, according to the UFIP count. This represents significant revenue for the State.
“Divergent views on demand growth”
The fact remains that pump prices also and above all reflect the evolution of prices on the black gold market. A liter of Brent, the benchmark index in Europe for crude oil, briefly fell back below the $70 mark (around €63) for delivery in November on Tuesday, September 10. This was the first time since December 2021. However, on Thursday, September 19, it recovered, ending the day at $74. “This level is still generally suitable for producing countries”considers Edouard Lotz, analyst for the consulting firm Omnegy.
Several factors explain why a barrel of Brent remains far from its levels of April, or even of the fall of 2023, when it was close to $90. The decline is motivated in particular by the market’s persistent fears about a slowdown in the economy in China, in Europe – where the industry is stalled – and in the United States. This could translate into weaker demand than expected. “The manufacturing sector is key to the consumption of petroleum products”recalls Jérôme Sabathier, head of the economics and environmental assessment department at the French Institute of Petroleum and New Energies.
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