kyiv’s surprise raid on Kursk has not changed Russia’s strategic plans and priorities. Moscow is still primarily focused on capturing Pokrovsk and advancing into eastern Ukraine.
Despite kyiv’s attempts to divert Russian forces from Pokrovsk with a surprise cross-border incursion into the Kursk region, Moscow is still concentrating its efforts in eastern Ukraine, where its offensive shows no sign of slowing down.
But why is this city in eastern Ukraine, which had a population of some 60,000 before Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022, so important to the Kremlin that it is willing to risk a further advance by kyiv into its own territory?
The Battle of Pokrovsk began more than six months ago, when Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka in mid-February.
From there, they retreated to Pokrovsk, a major logistics base and transportation hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, where many roads and railways intersect. Since the first breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense lines in April near the village of Ocheretyn, Russian forces have advanced more than 20 km toward Pokrovsk.
In early September, Ukraine moved more forces into the zone, but Russia did not move any of its forces away from its target towards Kursk, while threatening to encircle a large group of Ukrainian forces south of the main zone.
Moscow’s troops, advancing from two sides, have taken control of the town of Novohrodivka and are advancing from the southeast and from Ukrainsk, which fell earlier this week.
If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, it will be much more difficult to move troops, supplies and ammunition to other parts of an already stretched front line in eastern Ukraine.
Why Pokrovsk?
It is difficult to overestimate the importance of Pokrovsk for both Ukraine and Russia.
Pokrovsk is one of the strongholds of the Eastern Front of Ukraine. Its geographical location makes it not only one of the most important logistical centers, but it is also terribly close to what is considered the hinterland of Ukraine.
Dnipro, one of Ukraine’s largest cities with a population of about 1 million, is just a 2.5-hour drive from Pokrovsk. For kyiv, losing Pokrovsk would also mean moving the war closer to Ukraine’s center and its better-protected rearguard.
For Moscow, Pokrovsk is of capital importance. Only 17,000 people still live in this city, almost completely destroyed by the incessant bombing.
However, the ruins of Pokrovsk are only 20 kilometers from the administrative border of the Donetsk region — the line the Kremlin has been trying to reach since 2014, as Russian forces aim to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk.
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