“Antibiotic resistance is one of the most serious threats to global health, food security and development today,” warned the WHO in 2020.
A large-scale study, conducted by researchers from Global research on antimicrobial resistance (GRAM) project, published in The Lancet Monday, September 16, confirms that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is intensifying.
According to this work, by 2050, 39 million deaths will be directly due to antibiotic resistance, while 169 million will be associated with it.
Researchers estimate that 1.9 million deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections will occur, an increase of 70% per year by 2050, compared to 2022.
Over the same period, the number of deaths in which AMR bacteria play a role will increase by 75% (8.22 million per year). The regions of the world most affected are South Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Infections more difficult to treat
Antibiotics are drugs used to treat bacterial infections; resistance occurs when bacteria evolve in response to the use of these drugs. They can then cause infections that are harder to treat.
“For a growing number of infections, such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, sepsis and gonorrhea and foodborne illnesses, treatment is becoming more difficult, or sometimes impossible, because antibiotics are becoming less effective,” notes WHO.
The study of the Lancetreveals trends between 1990 and 2021 and measures the potential impacts of AMR up to 2050. In total, 520 million individual records were examined (hospital sources, death registers, data on the use of antibiotics, etc.), in 204 countries and territories around the world.
The researchers looked specifically at 22 pathogens, 84 combinations of pathogens and treatments, and 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages.
Globally, deaths from methicillin-resistant S. aureus – strains of Staphylococcus aureus that have developed resistance – have increased the most, with 130,000 deaths in 2021 compared to 57,200 in 1990.
Those aged 70 and over are most at risk
Over the period 1990–2021, more than 1 million people died each year from AMR worldwide, while more than 4 million deaths were associated with it.
During this period, AMR deaths among children under five years of age decreased by 50% while those among people aged 70 and over increased by 80%. By 2050, it is the elderly who will continue to be largely impacted by this scourge.
Among children under 5 years of age, the number of deaths is expected to continue to decline.
“The decline in deaths from sepsis and AMR in young children over the past three decades is an incredible achievement. However, these results show that while infections have become less common in young children, they have become harder to treat when they do occur. Furthermore, the threat of AMR to older people will only increase as the population ages. It is time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by AMR,” said Dr. Kevin Ikuta, study author from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
A growing threat
“Antimicrobial drugs are a cornerstone of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to these drugs is a major concern. These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and is growing,” said study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi, AMR research team leader at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, USA.
The researchers advocate for better infection prevention, vaccination, reducing inappropriate antibiotic use, and research into new antibiotics. They estimate that 92 million deaths could be prevented by 2050 with improved infection care and better access to existing antibiotics (combined with recommendations on how to use them most effectively).
And if new, effective antibiotics were developed against Gram-negative bacteria (gastroenteritis, pneumonia, cholera, whooping cough, plague, tularemia, brucellosis, salmonella, etc.), 11 million deaths could be avoided over the same period.
Source: WHO, Naghavi M, Vollset SE, Ikuta K, et al. Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050. The Lancet. 16 September 2024. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01867-1, Institute for health metrics and evaluation
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