FILE. Old real estate: in Toulouse, sales are collapsing with a drop of 28% in one year, but not prices…

There is no room for doubt. Notaries who draw up their statistics based on real estate sold are able to describe the sector’s outlook very precisely and they definitely describe 2024 as a bad year.

“The housing situation is dramatic throughout France and Toulouse is no exception,” said Hubert Létinier, president of the chamber of notaries of the Toulouse Court of Appeal. “While we need to house 10,000 to 15,000 new residents per year here, no new housing is being built; and we have seen a very significant 28% drop in sales volumes, both new and old, which is very worrying.”

Sales of old properties have also inexorably crumbled between June 2023 and June 2024 throughout Haute-Garonne: – 26% drop recorded for apartments, – 20% for houses. “Far from the 1.2 million transactions recorded throughout France at the end of 2021, we should end 2024 with between 800,000 and 900,000 transactions,” estimates the notary.

A crisis of confidence

In this context, however, there has been no collapse in prices. In 2023, they were still on the rise for old apartments in Haute-Garonne, (+3.1% with a median price of 2,950 euros/m2). “They have only fallen timidly by 2.4% in one year, to stabilize at 2,880 euros/m2. After the credit increases, inflation, and especially the crisis of confidence that is disrupting buyers, these slight price changes are far from sufficient to restart the machine, deplores Maître Frédéric Giral, delegate in charge of real estate at the chamber of notaries. Moreover, there is no evidence to suggest a market recovery. The question now is whether the decline in sales will continue or stabilize at this low point.”

Notaries also point to the building land market as the most affected by the crisis. “The individual house has become an inaccessible dream for a majority of potential buyers, following the surge in construction costs. Indeed, building a house costs 20% more today than four or five years ago. Over the past year, we have noted a 6.6% drop in building land prices in this segment, and demand is on the verge of extinction (-41%) across the whole of Haute-Garonne,” recalls Frédéric Giral.

On the market for old houses around Toulouse, prices are not collapsing. No town is really pulling out all the stops, but one aspect now seems to have a significant impact on the sale price: the energy performance diagnosis of the home, the famous DPE. “While the reference label is the letter D, we have seen negotiations of up to 15%, in the case of diagnoses downgraded to grades E or F,” assures the notary.

As for possible signs of recovery? “They are slow to appear. The decline in sales is still visible at least until the end of October, given the preliminary contracts signed at the moment.”