Daily | Oilseeds – Soybean prices still falling while rapeseed prices are recovering a little

THE price rapeseed prices recovered this Monday, September 16, 2024 on Euronext and by ricochet on the walk French physical, especially for the three most worked deadlines (November, February and May). The increase applies to all terms. The prices of soybeans listed on the CBOT continued their decline, with a March 2025 maturity quoting 1,038 cts$/bushel (cts$/bu), against 1,023.25 cts$/bu for January and 1,004.50 cts$/bu for November.

To find out all about the latest agricultural market news, click here

On the market of rapeseedseveral contradictory feelings were mixed this Monday: Canadian publication on canola (downward revision), movement of oil, euro-dollar parity, effects of the storm boris in Europe and the situation of seedlings in other countries… In Franceaccording to Terres Inovia, “thanks to the rains which began in mid-August in part of the territory, sowing was able to be carried out calmly for this campaign and a large part of the planned sole has now emerged”. Be careful, however, with pests : “we can first mention slugs, the small flea beetle (or cruciferous flea beetle), the turnip sawfly or even the cutworm”. This applies in particular to the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur regions and the South-West. The main thing was elsewhere on Monday, however, namely the downward dynamics that have been underway for several weeks now on the oils global.

The courses of the canola Winnipeg-listed stocks have lifted their heads a little after the announcement of a forecast of production 2024-2025 down from the previous month and last year. The reason? Warm temperatures and a lack of precipitation compared to seasonal norms.

In soythe session was particularly calm, with a harvest now completed for 6% of the surfaces in the United States (4% a year ago at the same time and 3% for the five-year average). The USDA has also downgraded the rate of plots supporting growing conditions “excellent” while maintaining that of the areas benefiting from growing conditions described as “good”. We also expect a planted area higher than that of last year in Argentina while the Brazil has just started sowing, at a slower pace than last year.

The market of theoil palm was closed this Monday in Malaysia due to a public holiday. Operators remain attentive to the downward movement in oil prices observed for several weeks at the global level. The association of crushers US published a crushed volume in August deemed disappointing by the market.

Side meteorologyfires continue with great intensity in Brazil, particularly in the Brasilia region but also in the Amazon and the Pantanal. The regions of Central and Eastern Europe (notably the Polandthere RomaniaL’Austriathere Czech Republicthere Slovakia) are beginning to measure the damage caused by Storm Boris, particularly in terms of water damage in agricultural production areas. To date, there have been problems with transportationparticularly rivers, due to the floods and the high water level of rivers and streams, particularly the Danube.

The courses of the oil ended higher on Monday, “supported by the prospect of a first rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and disruptions to supply in Libya and in the Gulf of Mexico,” according to AFP. The euro-dollar parity stood at $1.113 versus $1.108 the day before. France publishes today the business climate for September 2024, and the price of energies and imported raw materials for August 2024. The Bank of France will hold a press conference on its “Macroeconomic Projections – September 2024” while the United States Federal Reserve will hold its meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (until September 18). For its part, the European Commission must unveil its new team of commissioners and their portfolios in Strasbourg.

The prices of the sunflower have not changed from one day to the next on the French physical market.

Fundamentals:

• United States, soybeans, crop status : 52% judged to be in excellent condition and 12% in good condition compared to respectively 52% and 13% a week ago and 44% and 8% a year ago (Source: USDA);
• Canada, canola, production : estimated at 19 Mt for 2024-2025 in September against 19.5 Mt in August and 1.1% below last year’s harvest (Source: StatCan);
• Brazil, soybeans, sowing : start of the sowing period, at 0.06% of the expected total versus 0.15% last year at the same time (weather too hot and too dry). The expected sowing for this year is 46.6 Mha (Source: Thomson Reuters);
• United States, soybeans, crushing : expected at 171.325 million bushels (Mbu) against 182.881 Mbu in July (- 6.3%) and 161.453 Mbu in August 2023 (+ 6.1%); this is in any case the largest historical volume for a month of August (Source: Nopa and StoneX).

To find out all about the latest news for professionals in the grain industry, click here

French physical markets from September 16, 2024 (July base for cereals)

Commercial quotations of dairy products for September 12, 2024

Dollar / euro evolution of September 16, 2024

Chicago Futures Market Close of September 16, 2024

Closing of the Euronext futures market on September 16, 2024

International market quotes for September 16, 2024