Daily | Oilseeds – Rapeseed prices fall sharply on Euronext, like canola in Winnipeg

THE price of the main futures contracts on the rapeseed have fallen significantly on Friday, September 13, 2024 on the walk in the long term Euronext. The three main maturities (November, February and May) were between €7.75/t and €9.75/t, with the August 2025 maturity reaching €10/t. The declines also applied to all the following maturities. The soybean prices listed on the CBOT also fell, but less significantly, for all maturities (with an increase from the August 2025 term).

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This is the canola listed in Winnipeg which dragged European rapeseed into its significant decline. The Canadian seed reached an even lower level on the November 2024 deadline, below 542 Canadian dollars per tonne, and its lowest level in four years. The harvest Canadian market weighs on anti-dumping action opened by the China in this area creates a panic movement on the markets. The decline in oil prices after the alert due to storm Francine in the south of UNITED STATES also played a bearish role.

In the segment of soya good US sale to China, the forecast of rains in particularly dry growing areas this week and the return of funds to sales have weighed on the trend. We are also waiting to know the impacts of the storm francine and the publication of the growing conditions this Monday by theUSDAAnother cause for concern for the US industry: the announcement by unions of a possible strike in October in the country’s ports dedicated toexport. To be continued… In Argentinathe harvest is flowing normally to the ports, the threat of a strike having been averted on the main grain ports of Paraná. On the other hand, professionals are watching the level of the Paraná River very closely, fearing a drop in its level in the coming weeks. sowing in Ukraine are late.

L’oil palm Malaysian oil was back near 3,800 ringgits per tonne by November 2024. The country’s currency has been at a very high level recently as demand for oil is sluggish at the moment.

In sunflowerthere was no change in prices. In its September report on World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE), the USDA reduced its production forecast by two million tonnes. In Argentinasowing is struggling to progress due to dry soils, particularly in the western regions of the country, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

Side macroeconomicsthe courses of oil retreated on Friday, “with operators noting that thehurricane Francine did not, a priori, cause significant damage during its passage in the Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana,” according to AFP. euro-dollar parity stood at $1.108 on Friday versus $1.107 the day before.

In ArgentinaArgentine ultraliberal President Javier Milei presents his first budget for the country for 2025, still with the dual objective of reducing the state deficit to zero and lowering theinflation below 20% (compared to 238.7% at the end of August over twelve months and 123% forecast by the country’s central bank in 2024). Economic growth of +5% is envisaged for 2025 by some Argentine media in view of President Milei’s proposals.

Side meteorologybad weather of all kinds struck almost everywhere in the world during this weekend: continuation of the fires in Brazil following very severe repeated droughts (with possible impacts on the harvests soybeans and sugar cane in particular); typhoon Bebinca on Shanghai this Monday morning (strong winds and torrential rain); storm boris in Europe central and eastern which touches the Czech Republicthere Slovakiathere PolandL’Austria and the Romania (impacts to be assessed on sunflowers not yet harvested and on rapeseed sowing; disruption of the river logistics with a Danube Danube flows of 10,000 m3/s were recorded near Vienna (the fourth highest in the history of such measurements) and a town like Jesenik (north-east of the Czech Republic, close to the border with Poland) recorded 450 mm of rain in 96 hours (half of the annual rainfall in normal times).

Fundamentals:

• Ukraine, rapeseed, sowing : half of the planned area has been sown: 158,000 ha last week, which gives a current sown area of ​​535,000 ha as of September 9 (Source: Asap Agri);
• Ukraine, sunflower, harvest : as of September 12, 2.97 Mt harvested with an average yield of 1.98 t/ha (Source: Latifundist);
• Ukraine, soybeans, sowing : 48% of the planned areas planted compared to 72% in 2023; surface area target: 1.1234 Mha compared to 1.2544 Mha in 2023 (Source: Asap Agri).

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French physical markets from September 13, 2024 (July base for cereals)

Commercial quotations of dairy products for September 12, 2024

Dollar / euro evolution on September 13, 2024

Chicago Futures Market Close of September 13, 2024

Closing of the Euronext futures market on September 13, 2024

International market quotes for September 13, 2024