Cotes & prediction Ben Shelton – Lorenzo Sonego | Australian Open – 22/01/2025

This Wednesday, January 22, 2025, Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Sonego will face each other in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open.

For a long time, Italy wasn’t really on the men’s tennis map. However, during the 113th edition of the Australian Open, two Italian players found themselves among the top eight athletes. If not only Jannik Sinner beats Alex de Minaur as expected, but also if our prediction in favor of the Turinese’s victory against Ben Shelton comes true, there would even be an all-Italian semi-final on Friday at Melbourne Park.

We can expect a fairly close match. The two players’ paths have crossed twice so far, and in both cases, each player has won at least one set. In the only hard-court duel, which dates back to the 2022 Western & Southern Open, Ben Shelton narrowly won 2:1 after 34 games in a match that could have ended differently.

Ben Shelton – Statistics & Current Form

• Current ranking in the world rankings: 20
• Position in the seed list: 21

The 22-year-old American, Ben Shelton, already had a tennis racket in the cradle. His father, Bryan Shelton, once held 55th place in the ATP rankings. His uncle, Todd Witsken, even reached 43rd position. We therefore expect a lot from this player from Atlanta, Georgia, who has already reached 20th place in the ATP rankings and who even occupied 13th position in the rankings last fall.

Ben Shelton’s exceptional record at the Australian Open

The American is currently participating for the third time in the men’s singles at the Australian Open. From his debut in 2023, he reached the quarter-finals. A feat he achieved for the second time in three years. In total, the 22-year-old has a record of ten victories out of twelve single matches played during the Grand Slam on hard court in Melbourne. A victory rate of 83.3%, which has nothing to envy of that of the great champions. This also explains the role of favorite of the 20th in the world, who recently took advantage of an injury to Frenchman Gael Monfils (ATP 41) during a four-set thriller, after three sets all played in the tiebreak, while he led 2 :1.

Ben Shelton with a convincing second serve

Despite this, the odds for Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego lean heavily in favor of the Atlanta player. Vbet offers odds of 1.37 for the American to qualify for the semi-finals. During his round of 16, the 22-year-old particularly convinced with his second serve. The rate of 81% of points won with the first serve is certainly very strong, but not excessively remarkable. In contrast, the 54% of points won with the second serve represents a true peak performance, which led to him conceding only one service game in the high-profile match against Gael Monfils.

Lorenzo Sonego – Statistics & current form

• Current world ranking: 55
• Position in seed list: unseeded

The 29-year-old Italian, Lorenzo Sonego, has been on the ATP Tour for a long time, but has yet to experience any breakout success over the years. In his 25 appearances at Grand Slam tournaments, he only reached the round of 16 three times, where he was always eliminated. However, the Turinese not only reached the round of 16 of the Australian Open for the first time in his career, but he also took this step for the first time. It took the man from Piedmont two hours and 24 minutes to eliminate American qualifier Learner Tien (ATP 121) from the tournament with a 3:1 victory.

Although he didn’t face any headliners, Lorenzo Sonego still had some tough opponents

It is remarkable that this confrontation took place. Throughout the tournament, Lorenzo Sonego did not have to put away any heavyweights, with the exception of aging former Grand Slam winner Stan Wawrinka in the first round. Instead of facing Andrey Rublev, he met his winner, Joao Fonseca, in the second round. Instead of Frances Tiafoe, he faced her winner, Fábián Marozsán. And instead of Daniil Medvedev, he recently faced Learner Tien, who had beaten the Russian in a hotly contested five-set match in the second round, creating one of the big upsets of the tournament.

Lorenzo Sonego’s risky play paid off

However, it would be unfair to portray Lorenzo Sonego as an opportunist, especially since he had to work hard and solve many problems in his matches. Even now, betting on his next win against Ben Shelton is not at all out of the question. He has already beaten the American at a Grand Slam tournament – ​​in 2023 at Roland Garros (3:1). The 29-year-old from Turin is also very strong in return, as evidenced by the fact that he won 44% of the points in return in the round of 16. Moreover, his audacity has often been rewarded. Of the 58 winning shots he made, he only made 34 unforced errors. With such performances, he could certainly cause big problems for Ben Shelton.

Ben Shelton – Lorenzo Sonego prediction: compare the odds

Ben Shelton – Lorenzo Sonego: the last face-to-face

The fact that a close match is expected is also due to the fact that the head to head balance between the two athletes is 1:1. Both matches were fiercely contested. On hard court, Ben Shelton claimed a narrow 2:1 victory in 2022 at the Western & Southern Open after three sets and 34 games, before Lorenzo Sonego took his revenge in 2023 at Roland Garros with a 3:1 victory.

Ben Shelton – Lorenzo Sonego: Key Facts

The fact that the odds from the major bookmakers lean so clearly in favor of American Ben Shelton against Lorenzo Sonego surprises us a little. After all, the head to head record is balanced, and both players have already lost a few sets during the tournament. A tight quarter-final is therefore to be expected, which should probably not be decided in three sets, but rather extend over a certain length.

• In the direct confrontation, Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Sonego are tied 1:1.
• Ben Shelton has won ten of his twelve singles matches played at the Australian Open.
• Lorenzo Sonego reached the quarter-finals of a men’s singles Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his career.

In a balanced match, we estimate that the Italian has a good chance of victory, between 35 and 40%. This is already enough to create a positive expectation value, which is why our prediction for Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego leans in favor of the Turinese, even from a purely mathematical point of view.