While Donald Trump, inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on Monday, calls for an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Elliot Aurissergues, an economist specializing in the macroeconomic situation in the euro zone, believes that the end of the conflict would have “a limited impact on the price of gas and electricity” in France.
The energy crisis is far from over in France. Invested as the 47th President of the United States this Monday, January 20, Donald Trump will try in the coming weeks to put an end to the war in Ukraine, in accordance with his campaign promise made a few months later.
On December 22, he also suggested during a trip to Phoenix that he could meet Vladimir Putin at the start of his presidency, assuring that the master of the Kremlin wanted to meet him “as soon as possible”.
“I think we are quite far from a definitive settlement, and even a definitive settlement of the conflict would not necessarily mean a resumption of commercial relations with Russia as before the war,” recalled Elliot Aurissergues, economist specializing in macroeconomic situation in the euro zone.
“A very limited impact on the price of gas and electricity”
“There will be a very limited impact on the price of gas and electricity, because we are very far from a resumption of normal commercial relations between Europe and Russia, even in the event of a definitive settlement of the conflict. The geopolitical tension between Moscow and Europe will continue, there are already many things that have been done to diversify a little on both sides in relation to this relationship,” the expert predicted.
-“Russia has opened gas pipeline projects with China, while Europe wants to reduce its dependence on Russian gas following the war. So what could be considered in the short term is a resumption, for example, of gas transit through Ukraine,” assured Elliot Aurissergues.
“We should not expect a return before 2022”
The economist explained, despite the breakdown of energy agreements between Russia and Ukraine, that certain supplies continued to be made in the area.
“The gas was still in transition and the contract only ended on January 1 and despite this persistent transit, we saw electricity and gas prices in Europe which increased very sharply at the time. of the war and they are far from having returned to their level,” recalled Elliot Aurissergues.
“The possible resumption of gas transit through Ukraine would undoubtedly have an immediate, somewhat positive effect on the price of gas and electricity in Europe, but we should not expect a return to the period before either. 2022. This would also be more sensitive for the countries of Eastern Europe than for France, which is a little less immediately concerned by this aspect,” concluded the expert.
